Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Mafra vs Santa Clara prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: the Mafra vs Santa Clara match is scheduled on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. It is a tight call: 31% for Mafra, 25% for the draw and 44% for Santa Clara. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 0-1 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Mafra have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 2. Santa Clara therefore arrive in far better shape than Mafra. On average Mafra score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Santa Clara score 1.60 and concede 0.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mafra and Santa Clara: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Mafra or draw" stands at 56%, "Santa Clara or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Santa Clara are favourites for this Mafra v Santa Clara, with a 44% win probability from our model. On recent form, Mafra have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Santa Clara have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Mafra – Santa Clara. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mafra 1-1 Santa Clara | 12.0% |
| Mafra 0-1 Santa Clara | 9.8% |
| Mafra 1-2 Santa Clara | 9.1% |
| Mafra 1-0 Santa Clara | 8.0% |
| Mafra 0-2 Santa Clara | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.22 expected goals for Mafra and 1.51 for Santa Clara, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Mafra keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, Santa Clara in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Mafra expected goals | 1.22 |
| Santa Clara expected goals | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Mafra clean sheet | 22% |
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Mafra
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Oliveirense · Liga 3 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Covilha · Liga 3 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atlético Malveira · Taça de Portugal | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 · Liga 3 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP · Liga 3 | 1-1 | D |
Santa Clara
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rio Ave · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Alverca · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mafra and Santa Clara: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Mafra
No absences reported.
Santa Clara
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Mafra
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Sambu3/3
- G. Cardoso3/3
- J. Ferreira3/3
- M. Camara3/3
- M. Niang3/3
- P. Silva3/3
- R. Matos3/3
- Xico3/3
- Y. Maiga3/3
- A. Ba2/3
- L. Neves2/3
Santa Clara
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Fernandes5/5
- G. Paciencia5/5
- Guilherme Romao5/5
- J. Tavares5/5
- Lucas Franca5/5
- P. Ferreira5/5
- P. Pacheco5/5
- Vinicius Lopes5/5
- T. Ribeiro4/5
- Brenner3/5
- Lucas Soares3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Felgueiras 1932 – FafeOct 18, 2026
- Tondela – AlvercaOct 18, 2026
- Fazendense – EstrelaOct 18, 2026
- AVS – MoreirenseOct 18, 2026
- Alpendorada – Casa PiaOct 18, 2026
- Salgueiros – EstorilOct 18, 2026
- Lusitânia Lourosa – Os LimianosOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mafra vs Santa Clara prediction?
Our AI gives Mafra a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santa Clara 44%. Santa Clara are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Mafra vs Santa Clara?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.0%) and 0-2 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Mafra vs Santa Clara?
The probability that both Mafra and Santa Clara score is 55%. Mafra have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Santa Clara 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Mafra vs Santa Clara?
The model expects 2.73 goals (1.22 for Mafra, 1.51 for Santa Clara). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Mafra vs Santa Clara played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra.
What form are Mafra and Santa Clara in?
Mafra: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). Santa Clara: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Mafra vs Santa Clara prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.22 for Mafra, 1.51 for Santa Clara) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Mafra predictions
- All Santa Clara predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology