Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Alcochetense vs Maritimo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: the Alcochetense vs Maritimo match is scheduled on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Alcochetense start as favourites with a 46% chance of victory; Maritimo are given 27% and the draw 27%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-0 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Alcochetense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 7. Maritimo have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 11. Alcochetense therefore arrive in far better shape than Maritimo. On average Alcochetense score 3.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Maritimo score 1.00 and concede 2.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Alcochetense and Maritimo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Alcochetense or draw" stands at 73%, "Maritimo or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Alcochetense to edge Maritimo (46% probability). On recent form, Alcochetense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Maritimo have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alcochetense – Maritimo. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alcochetense 1-0 Maritimo | 13.4% |
| Alcochetense 1-1 Maritimo | 12.9% |
| Alcochetense 0-0 Maritimo | 9.9% |
| Alcochetense 0-1 Maritimo | 9.5% |
| Alcochetense 2-0 Maritimo | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.35 expected goals for Alcochetense and 0.96 for Maritimo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 41% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Alcochetense keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Maritimo in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alcochetense expected goals | 1.35 |
| Maritimo expected goals | 0.96 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Alcochetense clean sheet | 38% |
| Maritimo clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Alcochetense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fayal · Taça de Portugal | 8-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Portel · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juventude Évora · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D | 2-3 | L |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lagoa · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D | 2-1 | W |
Maritimo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Alcochetense and Maritimo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Alcochetense
No absences reported.
Maritimo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Maritimo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Butzke5/5
- Igor Juliao5/5
- M. Tejon5/5
- P. Henrique5/5
- R. Andrade5/5
- R. Correia5/5
- Raphael Guzzo5/5
- V. Danilovic5/5
- A. Pastor4/5
- R. Fernandes4/5
- B. Limbombe3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Alcochetense vs Maritimo prediction?
Our AI gives Alcochetense a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Maritimo 27%. Alcochetense are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Alcochetense vs Maritimo?
1-0 (13.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in Alcochetense vs Maritimo?
The probability that both Alcochetense and Maritimo score is 46%. Alcochetense have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Maritimo 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Alcochetense vs Maritimo?
The model expects 2.31 goals (1.35 for Alcochetense, 0.96 for Maritimo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Alcochetense vs Maritimo played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Alcochetense and Maritimo in?
Alcochetense: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 7 conceded). Maritimo: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 11 conceded).
How is the Alcochetense vs Maritimo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.35 for Alcochetense, 0.96 for Maritimo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Alcochetense predictions
- All Maritimo predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology