Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Paredes vs Famalicao prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Paredes vs Famalicao kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time). Venue: Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes. The edge goes to Paredes (53%), ahead of the draw (28%) and a Famalicao win (19%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (17.6%), ahead of 0-0 (13.0%) and 1-1 (12.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Paredes have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Famalicao have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Paredes. On average Paredes score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Famalicao score 1.40 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Paredes and Famalicao: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Paredes or draw" stands at 81%, "Famalicao or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Paredes are favourites for this Paredes v Famalicao, with a 53% win probability from our model. On recent form, Paredes are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Famalicao have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Paredes – Famalicao. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paredes 1-0 Famalicao | 17.6% |
| Paredes 0-0 Famalicao | 13.0% |
| Paredes 1-1 Famalicao | 12.1% |
| Paredes 2-0 Famalicao | 11.8% |
| Paredes 0-1 Famalicao | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.04 goals in total (1.35 for Paredes, 0.69 for Famalicao): over 2.5 goals has a 33% probability and both teams to score 37%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Paredes keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Famalicao in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Paredes expected goals | 1.35 |
| Famalicao expected goals | 0.69 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Paredes clean sheet | 50% |
| Famalicao clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Paredes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fafe · Liga 3 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Varzim · Liga 3 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ermesinde · Taça de Portugal | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leça · Liga 3 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira · Liga 3 | 1-0 | W |
Famalicao
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Paredes and Famalicao: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Paredes
No absences reported.
Famalicao
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Paredes
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Val3/3
- D. P. Duarte3/3
- D. Rodrigues3/3
- D. Silva3/3
- Erik3/3
- F. Almara3/3
- F. Matos3/3
- Gustavo Fernandes3/3
- J. Vigario3/3
- Miguel3/3
- P. Araujo3/3
Famalicao
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. van Breemen5/5
- G. Koutsias5/5
- L. Carevic5/5
- M. De Amorim5/5
- Pedro Bondo5/5
- R. Pinheiro5/5
- Sorriso5/5
- Gil Dias4/5
- M. Pena4/5
- L. Realpe3/5
- P. Moreira2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Alcochetense – MaritimoOct 18, 2026
- Fátima – Academico ViseuOct 18, 2026
- Felgueiras 1932 – FafeOct 18, 2026
- Tondela – AlvercaOct 18, 2026
- Fazendense – EstrelaOct 18, 2026
- Mafra – Santa ClaraOct 18, 2026
- AVS – MoreirenseOct 18, 2026
- Alpendorada – Casa PiaOct 18, 2026
- Salgueiros – EstorilOct 18, 2026
- Lusitânia Lourosa – Os LimianosOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Paredes vs Famalicao prediction?
Our AI gives Paredes a 53% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Famalicao 19%. Paredes are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Paredes vs Famalicao?
1-0 (17.6%), followed by 0-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.8%) and 0-1 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in Paredes vs Famalicao?
The probability that both Paredes and Famalicao score is 37%. Paredes have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Famalicao 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Paredes vs Famalicao?
The model expects 2.04 goals (1.35 for Paredes, 0.69 for Famalicao). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 61%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Paredes vs Famalicao played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes.
What form are Paredes and Famalicao in?
Paredes: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Famalicao: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Paredes vs Famalicao prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.35 for Paredes, 0.69 for Famalicao) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Paredes predictions
- All Famalicao predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology