Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Tondela vs Alverca prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Tondela vs Alverca kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Tondela (56%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Alverca win (19%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.8%), ahead of 1-1 (11.7%) and 2-0 (11.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Tondela have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Alverca have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Tondela. On average Tondela score 2.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Alverca score 1.60 and concede 1.80.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Tondela, 1 for Alverca and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tondela 1-1 Alverca (Feb 13, 2026). In double chance terms, "Tondela or draw" stands at 81%, "Alverca or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Tondela are favourites for this Tondela v Alverca, with a 56% win probability from our model. On recent form, Tondela have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Alverca have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Tondela – Alverca. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tondela 1-0 Alverca | 14.8% |
| Tondela 1-1 Alverca | 11.7% |
| Tondela 2-0 Alverca | 11.6% |
| Tondela 0-0 Alverca | 9.4% |
| Tondela 2-1 Alverca | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.36 goals in total (1.57 for Tondela, 0.79 for Alverca): over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability and both teams to score 43%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Tondela keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Alverca in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Tondela expected goals | 1.57 |
| Alverca expected goals | 0.79 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Tondela clean sheet | 45% |
| Alverca clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Tondela
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira · Taça de Portugal | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B · Liga Portugal 2 | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-2 | L |
Alverca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tondela 1-1 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Alverca 1-0 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Tondela
No absences reported.
Alverca
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Tondela
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Carraca4/4
- Cascavel4/4
- Farru4/4
- H. Felix4/4
- Ze Ricardo4/4
- Carlao3/4
- G. Novero3/4
- H. Tavares3/4
- Tomane3/4
- A. van der Heide2/4
- C. Marques2/4
Alverca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Figueiredo5/5
- I. James5/5
- Ian Luccas5/5
- Matheus Mendes5/5
- Y. Bojang5/5
- S. Baseya4/5
- V. Semedo4/5
- Chiquinho3/5
- D. Gui3/5
- N. Touaizi3/5
- Rayan Lucas3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Alcochetense – MaritimoOct 18, 2026
- Fátima – Academico ViseuOct 18, 2026
- Felgueiras 1932 – FafeOct 18, 2026
- Fazendense – EstrelaOct 18, 2026
- Mafra – Santa ClaraOct 18, 2026
- AVS – MoreirenseOct 18, 2026
- Alpendorada – Casa PiaOct 18, 2026
- Salgueiros – EstorilOct 18, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Tondela vs Alverca prediction?
Our AI gives Tondela a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alverca 19%. Tondela are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Tondela vs Alverca?
1-0 (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (9.4%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Alverca?
The probability that both Tondela and Alverca score is 43%. Tondela have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alverca 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Tondela vs Alverca?
The model expects 2.36 goals (1.57 for Tondela, 0.79 for Alverca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Tondela vs Alverca played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Tondela and Alverca in?
Tondela: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded). Alverca: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Alverca?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Tondela, 1 for Alverca and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tondela 1-1 Alverca (Feb 13, 2026).
How is the Tondela vs Alverca prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Tondela, 0.79 for Alverca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Tondela predictions
- All Alverca predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology