Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)
União de Leiria vs Bragança prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
União de Leiria take on Bragança on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), a Taça de Portugal fixture. With a 61% win probability, União de Leiria go in as strong favourites against Bragança (17%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.1%) and 1-1 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, União de Leiria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Bragança are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Bragança. On average União de Leiria score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Bragança score 2.20 and concede 0.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between União de Leiria and Bragança: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "União de Leiria or draw" stands at 83%, "Bragança or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : União de Leiria are favourites for this União de Leiria v Bragança, with a 61% win probability from our model. On recent form, União de Leiria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Bragança are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as União de Leiria – Bragança. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| União de Leiria 1-0 Bragança | 11.8% |
| União de Leiria 2-0 Bragança | 11.1% |
| União de Leiria 1-1 Bragança | 10.5% |
| União de Leiria 2-1 Bragança | 9.9% |
| União de Leiria 3-0 Bragança | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.77 goals in total (1.88 for União de Leiria, 0.89 for Bragança): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 50%. União de Leiria keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Bragança in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| União de Leiria expected goals | 1.88 |
| Bragança expected goals | 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| União de Leiria clean sheet | 41% |
| Bragança clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
União de Leiria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Amarante · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Portimonense · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Tondela · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leixoes · Liga Portugal 2 | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Benfica B · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-2 | L |
Bragança
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Ponte da Barca · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Maia Lidador · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rebordelo · Taça de Portugal | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | SC Braga B · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brito · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 3-2 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between União de Leiria and Bragança: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
União de Leiria
No absences reported.
Bragança
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
União de Leiria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Lottin5/5
- Guirassy5/5
- J. Munoz5/5
- J. Odehnal5/5
- Maga5/5
- Marcelo5/5
- N. Ondo5/5
- P. Fernandez5/5
- H. Masaki4/5
- Ze Pedro4/5
- Jaiminho2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Recreativa de Lamelas – GuimaraesOct 17, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Florgrade – PortimonenseOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- Penafiel – LeçaOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the União de Leiria vs Bragança prediction?
Our AI gives União de Leiria a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bragança 17%. União de Leiria are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for União de Leiria vs Bragança?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in União de Leiria vs Bragança?
The probability that both União de Leiria and Bragança score is 50%. União de Leiria have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bragança 15%.
How many goals should we expect in União de Leiria vs Bragança?
The model expects 2.77 goals (1.88 for União de Leiria, 0.89 for Bragança). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is União de Leiria vs Bragança played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are União de Leiria and Bragança in?
União de Leiria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Bragança: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the União de Leiria vs Bragança prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.88 for União de Leiria, 0.89 for Bragança) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All União de Leiria predictions
- All Bragança predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology