Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Athletic Club take on Sport Recife on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31 fixture. Venue: Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Minas Gerais. Athletic Club start as favourites with a 50% chance of victory; Sport Recife are given 25% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Sport Recife have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Athletic Club score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sport Recife score 1.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Athletic Club sit 13th with 41 points from 29 games, Sport Recife 9th with 44 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sport Recife 1-1 Athletic Club (Jun 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Athletic Club or draw" stands at 75%, "Sport Recife or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Athletic Club are tipped by our AI model in this Athletic Club v Sport Recife (50%). On recent form, Athletic Club have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Sport Recife have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Athletic Club – Sport Recife. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club 1-1 Sport Recife | 12.0% |
| Athletic Club 1-0 Sport Recife | 11.4% |
| Athletic Club 2-1 Sport Recife | 9.4% |
| Athletic Club 2-0 Sport Recife | 9.0% |
| Athletic Club 0-1 Sport Recife | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.58 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.05 for Sport Recife, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Sport Recife in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club expected goals | 1.58 |
| Sport Recife expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 35% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventude · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
Sport Recife
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Juventude · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | CRB · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ceara · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 13 | 41 | 29 |
| Sport Recife | 9 | 44 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | Sport Recife 1-1 Athletic Club | Brasileirão Série B |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Sport Recife 1-3 Athletic Club | Copa do Brasil |
Out and doubtful
Athletic Club
No absences reported.
Sport Recife
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Athletic Club
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Luan Polli5/5
- Max4/5
- Carlinhos3/5
- D. Vera3/5
- Felipe Negrucci3/5
- Jhonatan3/5
- João Miguel3/5
- Kauan3/5
- Kauan Lindes3/5
- Lucas Belezi3/5
- Yago Santos3/5
Sport Recife
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Marcelo Ajul5/5
- Thiago Couto5/5
- Chrystian Barletta4/5
- Kayky Almeida4/5
- D. Hernández3/5
- Juan Alano3/5
- Marcelo Benevenuto3/5
- Perotti3/5
- Willian Oliveira3/5
- Biel2/5
- Diego Hernandez2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Botafogo SP – Ponte PretaSep 29, 2026
- Novorizontino – GoiasOct 2, 2026
- São Bernardo – CRBOct 2, 2026
- Londrina – CriciumaOct 3, 2026
- Juventude – Operario-PROct 3, 2026
- Fortaleza EC – Nautico RecifeOct 3, 2026
- Avai – CearaOct 3, 2026
- Atletico Goianiense – America MineiroOct 3, 2026
- Cuiaba – Ponte PretaOct 3, 2026
- Botafogo SP – Vila NovaOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Athletic Club vs Sport Recife prediction?
Our AI gives Athletic Club a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sport Recife 25%. Athletic Club are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
The probability that both Athletic Club and Sport Recife score is 52%. Athletic Club have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sport Recife 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.58 for Athletic Club, 1.05 for Sport Recife). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Athletic Club vs Sport Recife played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31. Venue: Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Minas Gerais.
What form are Athletic Club and Sport Recife in?
Athletic Club: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Sport Recife: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Sport Recife?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sport Recife 1-1 Athletic Club (Jun 11, 2026).
How is the Athletic Club vs Sport Recife prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for Athletic Club, 1.05 for Sport Recife) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Athletic Club predictions
- All Sport Recife predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology