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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

CuiabaCuiaba2 – 0Ponte PretaPonte Preta

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cuiaba at 73%. The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.

Match analysis

Cuiaba and Ponte Preta met on Saturday, October 3, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31 fixture. Venue: Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba. Before kick-off, our model gave Cuiaba a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Ponte Preta 10%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 3-0 (9.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Cuiaba have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Ponte Preta have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 12. Cuiaba therefore arrive in far better shape than Ponte Preta. On average Cuiaba score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Ponte Preta score 0.20 and concede 2.40. In the table, Cuiaba sit 11th with 43 points from 30 games, Ponte Preta 20th with 13 points from 30. 9 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cuiaba, 0 for Ponte Preta and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 1-2 Cuiaba (Jun 9, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cuiaba or draw" stands at 90%, "Ponte Preta or draw" at 27% and "no draw" at 83%.

In short : Our model backs Cuiaba to edge Ponte Preta (73% probability). In the table, Cuiaba (11th, 43 pts) host Ponte Preta (20th, 13 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 58%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

73%
Cuiaba (Win)
17%
Draw
10%
Ponte Preta (Win)

Double chance

90%
Cuiaba or draw
27%
Ponte Preta or draw
83%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Cuiaba – Ponte Preta. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta12.9%
Cuiaba 1-0 Ponte Preta11.2%
Cuiaba 3-0 Ponte Preta9.9%
Cuiaba 2-1 Ponte Preta9.3%
Cuiaba 1-1 Ponte Preta8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.31 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.72 for Ponte Preta, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 58% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Goals look likely in this one. Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Ponte Preta in 10%.

Probability
Cuiaba expected goals2.31
Ponte Preta expected goals0.72
Both teams to score46%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Cuiaba clean sheet49%
Ponte Preta clean sheet10%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Cuiaba

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B0-3L
Sep 22, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 13, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 9, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 4, 2026Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B0-2L

Ponte Preta

DateOpponentScore
Sep 29, 2026Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 20, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 15, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B0-6L
Sep 11, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 6, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Cuiaba114330
Ponte Preta201330

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 9, 2026Ponte Preta 1-2 CuiabaBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Cuiaba

No absences reported.

Ponte Preta

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Cuiaba

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • David Miguel5/5
  • Jean Dias5/5
  • Lorenzo5/5
  • Raul5/5
  • Fábio Gomes4/5
  • Igor Inocêncio4/5
  • João Carlos4/5
  • Kauan4/5
  • Vitor Mendes4/5
  • Calebe3/5
  • João Basso3/5

Ponte Preta

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Danilo Barcelos5/5
  • David da Hora4/5
  • S. Palacios4/5
  • Vinicius4/5
  • André Lima3/5
  • Brandão3/5
  • Diego Monteiro Leao3/5
  • Gustavo Almeida3/5
  • Jonathan da Cruz Silva3/5
  • Lucas Cunha3/5
  • Murilo3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Cuiaba a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Ponte Preta 10%. Cuiaba are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?

2-0 (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?

The probability that both Cuiaba and Ponte Preta score is 46%. Cuiaba have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ponte Preta 10%.

How many goals should we expect in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 3.03 goals (2.31 for Cuiaba, 0.72 for Ponte Preta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.

When and where is Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31. Venue: Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba.

What form are Cuiaba and Ponte Preta in?

Cuiaba: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Ponte Preta: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 12 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Ponte Preta?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cuiaba, 0 for Ponte Preta and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 1-2 Cuiaba (Jun 9, 2026).

What was the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cuiaba at 73%. The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.

How is the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.31 for Cuiaba, 0.72 for Ponte Preta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained