Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Cuiaba take on Ponte Preta on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31 fixture. Venue: Arena Pantanal. Our model makes Cuiaba clear favourites: a 76% chance of winning, against 15% for the draw and 9% for Ponte Preta. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%) and 3-0 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cuiaba have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Ponte Preta have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 12. Cuiaba therefore arrive in far better shape than Ponte Preta. On average Cuiaba score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Ponte Preta score 0.20 and concede 2.40. In the table, Cuiaba sit 10th with 43 points from 29 games, Ponte Preta 20th with 13 points from 29. 10 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cuiaba, 0 for Ponte Preta and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 1-2 Cuiaba (Jun 9, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cuiaba or draw" stands at 91%, "Ponte Preta or draw" at 24% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Our model backs Cuiaba to edge Ponte Preta (76% probability). In the table, Cuiaba (10th, 43 pts) host Ponte Preta (20th, 13 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 60%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cuiaba – Ponte Preta. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta | 13.1% |
| Cuiaba 1-0 Ponte Preta | 10.8% |
| Cuiaba 3-0 Ponte Preta | 10.5% |
| Cuiaba 2-1 Ponte Preta | 9.0% |
| Cuiaba 1-1 Ponte Preta | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.42 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.69 for Ponte Preta, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 60% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Goals look likely in this one. Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Ponte Preta in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cuiaba expected goals | 2.42 |
| Ponte Preta expected goals | 0.69 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Cuiaba clean sheet | 50% |
| Ponte Preta clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cuiaba
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
Ponte Preta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | CRB · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Londrina · Brasileirão Série B | 0-6 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 10 | 43 | 29 |
| Ponte Preta | 20 | 13 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ponte Preta 1-2 Cuiaba | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
Cuiaba
No absences reported.
Ponte Preta
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cuiaba
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Jean Dias5/5
- Lorenzo5/5
- Raul5/5
- David Miguel4/5
- Vitor Mendes4/5
- Fábio Gomes3/5
- Igor Inocêncio3/5
- João Basso3/5
- João Carlos3/5
- Kauan3/5
- Calebe2/5
Ponte Preta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Danilo Barcelos4/5
- Gustavo Almeida4/5
- David da Hora3/5
- Julio3/5
- Lucas Cunha3/5
- Murilo3/5
- S. Palacios3/5
- Vinicius3/5
- André Lima2/5
- Brandão2/5
- Diego Monteiro Leao2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Botafogo SP – Ponte PretaSep 29, 2026
- Novorizontino – GoiasOct 2, 2026
- São Bernardo – CRBOct 2, 2026
- Londrina – CriciumaOct 3, 2026
- Juventude – Operario-PROct 3, 2026
- Fortaleza EC – Nautico RecifeOct 3, 2026
- Avai – CearaOct 3, 2026
- Botafogo SP – Vila NovaOct 3, 2026
- Sport Recife – São BernardoOct 6, 2026
- Ponte Preta – JuventudeOct 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta prediction?
Our AI gives Cuiaba a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Ponte Preta 9%. Cuiaba are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?
2-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.0%) and 1-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?
The probability that both Cuiaba and Ponte Preta score is 45%. Cuiaba have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ponte Preta 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?
The model expects 3.11 goals (2.42 for Cuiaba, 0.69 for Ponte Preta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31. Venue: Arena Pantanal.
What form are Cuiaba and Ponte Preta in?
Cuiaba: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Ponte Preta: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Ponte Preta?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cuiaba, 0 for Ponte Preta and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 1-2 Cuiaba (Jun 9, 2026).
How is the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.42 for Cuiaba, 0.69 for Ponte Preta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cuiaba predictions
- All Ponte Preta predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology