Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série B, matchday 32: the Sport Recife vs São Bernardo match is scheduled on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife. The edge goes to Sport Recife (51%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a São Bernardo win (24%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.7%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sport Recife have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, São Bernardo have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with São Bernardo. On average Sport Recife score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; São Bernardo score 1.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Sport Recife sit 9th with 44 points from 29 games, São Bernardo 12th with 41 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sport Recife, 0 for São Bernardo and 1 draw. The most recent ended São Bernardo 0-0 Sport Recife (Jun 14, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sport Recife or draw" stands at 76%, "São Bernardo or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Sport Recife are tipped by our AI model in this Sport Recife v São Bernardo (51%). On recent form, Sport Recife have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while São Bernardo have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sport Recife – São Bernardo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sport Recife 1-1 São Bernardo | 11.7% |
| Sport Recife 1-0 São Bernardo | 11.5% |
| Sport Recife 2-1 São Bernardo | 9.6% |
| Sport Recife 2-0 São Bernardo | 9.4% |
| Sport Recife 0-1 São Bernardo | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.63 for Sport Recife, 1.02 for São Bernardo): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 51%. Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, São Bernardo in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sport Recife expected goals | 1.63 |
| São Bernardo expected goals | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 36% |
| São Bernardo clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sport Recife
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Juventude · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | CRB · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ceara · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
São Bernardo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Londrina · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Goias · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 9 | 44 | 29 |
| São Bernardo | 12 | 41 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | São Bernardo 0-0 Sport Recife | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
Sport Recife
No absences reported.
São Bernardo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sport Recife
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Marcelo Ajul5/5
- Thiago Couto5/5
- Chrystian Barletta4/5
- Kayky Almeida4/5
- D. Hernández3/5
- Juan Alano3/5
- Marcelo Benevenuto3/5
- Perotti3/5
- Willian Oliveira3/5
- Biel2/5
- Diego Hernandez2/5
São Bernardo
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Alex Alves4/4
- Felipe Garcia4/4
- Jemerson4/4
- Pedrinho4/4
- Rodrigo Ferreira4/4
- Romisson4/4
- Augusto3/4
- Foguinho3/4
- Dudu Miraima2/4
- Eduardo2/4
- Mário Sérgio2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Botafogo SP – Vila NovaOct 3, 2026
- Goias – Athletic ClubOct 7, 2026
- Ponte Preta – JuventudeOct 7, 2026
- Avai – LondrinaOct 7, 2026
- Operario-PR – Botafogo SPOct 7, 2026
- America Mineiro – Fortaleza ECOct 8, 2026
- CRB – Atletico GoianienseOct 8, 2026
- Vila Nova – CuiabaOct 8, 2026
- Ceara – CriciumaOct 8, 2026
- Nautico Recife – NovorizontinoOct 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sport Recife vs São Bernardo prediction?
Our AI gives Sport Recife a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and São Bernardo 24%. Sport Recife are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
The probability that both Sport Recife and São Bernardo score is 51%. Sport Recife have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, São Bernardo 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.63 for Sport Recife, 1.02 for São Bernardo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Sport Recife vs São Bernardo played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 32. Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife.
What form are Sport Recife and São Bernardo in?
Sport Recife: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). São Bernardo: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and São Bernardo?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sport Recife, 0 for São Bernardo and 1 draw. The most recent ended São Bernardo 0-0 Sport Recife (Jun 14, 2026).
How is the Sport Recife vs São Bernardo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.63 for Sport Recife, 1.02 for São Bernardo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sport Recife predictions
- All São Bernardo predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology