Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série B, matchday 32: the Vila Nova vs Cuiaba match is scheduled on Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania. Vila Nova start as favourites with a 57% chance of victory; Cuiaba are given 20% and the draw 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Vila Nova have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Cuiaba have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Vila Nova score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Cuiaba score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Vila Nova sit 1st with 51 points from 29 games, Cuiaba 10th with 43 points from 29. 9 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vila Nova, 1 for Cuiaba and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova (Jun 14, 2026). In double chance terms, "Vila Nova or draw" stands at 80%, "Cuiaba or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Vila Nova to edge Cuiaba (57% probability). In the table, Vila Nova (1st, 51 pts) host Cuiaba (10th, 43 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Vila Nova – Cuiaba. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vila Nova 1-0 Cuiaba | 11.8% |
| Vila Nova 1-1 Cuiaba | 11.1% |
| Vila Nova 2-0 Cuiaba | 10.4% |
| Vila Nova 2-1 Cuiaba | 9.8% |
| Vila Nova 0-0 Cuiaba | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.77 expected goals for Vila Nova and 0.94 for Cuiaba, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Vila Nova keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Cuiaba in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Vila Nova expected goals | 1.77 |
| Cuiaba expected goals | 0.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Vila Nova clean sheet | 39% |
| Cuiaba clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Vila Nova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Avai · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Goias · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ceara · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
Cuiaba
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1 | 51 | 29 |
| Cuiaba | 10 | 43 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
Vila Nova
No absences reported.
Cuiaba
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Vila Nova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Helton Leite5/5
- Janderson5/5
- Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
- Dudu4/5
- Everton Galdino4/5
- Hayner4/5
- André Luís3/5
- Douglas Mendes3/5
- João Vieira3/5
- Jonathan Costa3/5
- Willian Formiga3/5
Cuiaba
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Jean Dias5/5
- Lorenzo5/5
- Raul5/5
- David Miguel4/5
- Vitor Mendes4/5
- Fábio Gomes3/5
- Igor Inocêncio3/5
- João Basso3/5
- João Carlos3/5
- Kauan3/5
- Calebe2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Sport Recife – São BernardoOct 6, 2026
- Ponte Preta – JuventudeOct 7, 2026
- Avai – LondrinaOct 7, 2026
- Operario-PR – Botafogo SPOct 7, 2026
- CRB – Atletico GoianienseOct 8, 2026
- Ceara – CriciumaOct 8, 2026
- Nautico Recife – NovorizontinoOct 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Vila Nova vs Cuiaba prediction?
Our AI gives Vila Nova a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cuiaba 20%. Vila Nova are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
The probability that both Vila Nova and Cuiaba score is 51%. Vila Nova have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cuiaba 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.77 for Vila Nova, 0.94 for Cuiaba). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Vila Nova vs Cuiaba played?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 32. Venue: Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania.
What form are Vila Nova and Cuiaba in?
Vila Nova: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Cuiaba: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Vila Nova and Cuiaba?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vila Nova, 1 for Cuiaba and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova (Jun 14, 2026).
How is the Vila Nova vs Cuiaba prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.77 for Vila Nova, 0.94 for Cuiaba) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Vila Nova predictions
- All Cuiaba predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology