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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)

Ceara vs Criciuma: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

CearaCeara1 – 0CriciumaCriciuma

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Ceara 1-0 Criciuma. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Ceara at 38%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.

Match analysis

Ceara and Criciuma met on Thursday, October 8, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 32 fixture. Venue: Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza. Before kick-off, our model gave Ceara a 38% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Criciuma 32%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.7%), followed by 1-1 (13.5%) and 0-0 (12.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Ceara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Criciuma have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ceara score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Criciuma score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Ceara sit 15th with 39 points from 31 games, Criciuma 5th with 53 points from 31. 10 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for Criciuma and 1 draw. The most recent ended Criciuma 1-1 Ceara (Jun 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Ceara or draw" stands at 68%, "Criciuma or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 70%.

In short : An evenly-matched game between Ceara and Criciuma: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Ceara (15th, 39 pts) host Criciuma (5th, 53 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
Ceara (Win)
30%
Draw
32%
Criciuma (Win)

Double chance

68%
Ceara or draw
62%
Criciuma or draw
70%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ceara – Criciuma. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ceara 1-0 Criciuma13.7%
Ceara 1-1 Criciuma13.5%
Ceara 0-0 Criciuma12.5%
Ceara 0-1 Criciuma12.2%
Ceara 2-0 Criciuma7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.10 expected goals for Ceara and 0.98 for Criciuma, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Few goals are expected here. Ceara keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Criciuma in 33%.

Probability
Ceara expected goals1.10
Criciuma expected goals0.98
Both teams to score42%
Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Ceara clean sheet38%
Criciuma clean sheet33%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Ceara

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Sep 19, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Sep 13, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 10, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B1-2L

Criciuma

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 27, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 22, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 13, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B0-4L
Sep 9, 2026Juventude · Brasileirão Série B0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Ceara153931
Criciuma55331

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 16, 2026Criciuma 1-1 CearaBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Ceara

No absences reported.

Criciuma

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Ceara

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Luiz Otavio9/5
  • Joao Gabriel5/5
  • Melk5/5
  • Richard5/5
  • Bryan Borges4/5
  • Enzo Lodovico4/5
  • Julio Cesar4/5
  • Sanchez3/5
  • Saulo Mineiro3/5
  • M. N. Ferreira Berrondo2/5
  • Matheus Araujo2/5

Criciuma

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Airton5/5
  • Luciano Castan5/5
  • Rodrigo5/5
  • Ronald Lopes5/5
  • Marcelo Hermes4/5
  • R. Otero4/5
  • Cesar Martins3/5
  • Fellipe Mateus3/5
  • Jhonata Robert3/5
  • Marcinho3/5
  • Nicolas3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ceara vs Criciuma prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Ceara a 38% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Criciuma 32%. Ceara are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Ceara vs Criciuma?

1-0 (13.7%), followed by 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Ceara vs Criciuma?

The probability that both Ceara and Criciuma score is 42%. Ceara have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Criciuma 33%.

How many goals should we expect in Ceara vs Criciuma?

The model expects 2.08 goals (1.10 for Ceara, 0.98 for Criciuma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.

When and where is Ceara vs Criciuma played?

Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 32. Venue: Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza.

What form are Ceara and Criciuma in?

Ceara: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Criciuma: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Criciuma?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for Criciuma and 1 draw. The most recent ended Criciuma 1-1 Ceara (Jun 16, 2026).

What was the Ceara vs Criciuma result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Ceara 1-0 Criciuma. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Ceara at 38%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.

How is the Ceara vs Criciuma prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.10 for Ceara, 0.98 for Criciuma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained