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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Juventude vs São Bernardo: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

JuventudeJuventude2 – 2São BernardoSão Bernardo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Juventude 2-2 São Bernardo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Juventude (72%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.

Match analysis

Juventude and São Bernardo met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33 fixture. Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul. Before kick-off, our model gave Juventude a 72% chance of winning, the draw 20% and São Bernardo 8%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (18.8%), followed by 2-0 (17.3%) and 3-0 (10.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Juventude have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, São Bernardo have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Juventude score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; São Bernardo score 1.40 and concede 0.60. In the table, Juventude sit 1st with 59 points from 32 games, São Bernardo 12th with 45 points from 32. 11 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Juventude, 0 for São Bernardo and 0 draws. The most recent ended São Bernardo 0-1 Juventude (Jun 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Juventude or draw" stands at 92%, "São Bernardo or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 80%.

In short : Our model backs Juventude to edge São Bernardo (72% probability). In the table, Juventude (1st, 59 pts) host São Bernardo (12th, 45 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

72%
Juventude (Win)
20%
Draw
8%
São Bernardo (Win)

Double chance

92%
Juventude or draw
28%
São Bernardo or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Juventude – São Bernardo. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 65% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Juventude 1-0 São Bernardo18.8%
Juventude 2-0 São Bernardo17.3%
Juventude 3-0 São Bernardo10.6%
Juventude 0-0 São Bernardo10.2%
Juventude 1-1 São Bernardo8.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.84 expected goals for Juventude and 0.44 for São Bernardo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 40% and "both teams to score" at 30%. Few goals are expected here. Juventude keep a clean sheet in 64% of scenarios, São Bernardo in 16%.

Probability
Juventude expected goals1.84
São Bernardo expected goals0.44
Both teams to score30%
Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Juventude clean sheet64%
São Bernardo clean sheet16%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Juventude

DateOpponentScore
Oct 7, 2026Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 3, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 28, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 19, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B0-2L

São Bernardo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 6, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Oct 2, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B3-1W
Sep 25, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Sep 19, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 14, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Juventude15932
São Bernardo124532

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 21, 2026São Bernardo 0-1 JuventudeBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Juventude

No absences reported.

São Bernardo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Juventude

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Aderlan5/5
  • Jandrei5/5
  • Mandaca5/5
  • Rodrigo Sam5/5
  • Alisson Safira4/5
  • Diogo Barbosa4/5
  • Fabio Lima3/5
  • Gabriel Pinheiro3/5
  • Gabriel Pires3/5
  • Marcos Paulo3/5
  • Messias3/5

São Bernardo

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Alex Alves5/5
  • Felipe Garcia5/5
  • Jemerson5/5
  • Pedrinho5/5
  • Augusto4/5
  • Dudu Miraima4/5
  • Mario Sergio4/5
  • Rodrigo Ferreira4/5
  • Foguinho3/5
  • Helder Maciel3/5
  • Lucas Lima2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Juventude vs São Bernardo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Juventude a 72% chance of winning, the draw 20% and São Bernardo 8%. Juventude are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Juventude vs São Bernardo?

1-0 (18.8%), followed by 2-0 (17.3%), 3-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%) and 1-1 (8.3%).

Will both teams score in Juventude vs São Bernardo?

The probability that both Juventude and São Bernardo score is 30%. Juventude have a 64% chance of keeping a clean sheet, São Bernardo 16%.

How many goals should we expect in Juventude vs São Bernardo?

The model expects 2.28 goals (1.84 for Juventude, 0.44 for São Bernardo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.

When and where is Juventude vs São Bernardo played?

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33. Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul.

What form are Juventude and São Bernardo in?

Juventude: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). São Bernardo: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and São Bernardo?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Juventude, 0 for São Bernardo and 0 draws. The most recent ended São Bernardo 0-1 Juventude (Jun 21, 2026).

What was the Juventude vs São Bernardo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Juventude 2-2 São Bernardo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Juventude (72%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.

How is the Juventude vs São Bernardo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.84 for Juventude, 0.44 for São Bernardo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained