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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 23:00 (UK time)

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta: 5-1 result and AI prediction review

NovorizontinoNovorizontino5 – 1Ponte PretaPonte Preta

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Novorizontino 5-1 Ponte Preta. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Novorizontino was the model's favourite outcome (79%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.

Match analysis

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta was played on Monday, October 12, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33). Venue: Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons. Before kick-off, our model gave Novorizontino a 79% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Ponte Preta 7%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (13.2%), ahead of 3-0 (11.5%) and 1-0 (10.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Novorizontino have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Ponte Preta have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Novorizontino. On average Novorizontino score 1.40 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Ponte Preta score 0.20 and concede 2.40. In the table, Novorizontino sit 3rd with 57 points from 32 games, Ponte Preta 20th with 13 points from 32. 17 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Novorizontino, 0 for Ponte Preta and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 0-2 Novorizontino (Jun 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Novorizontino or draw" stands at 93%, "Ponte Preta or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 86%.

In short : Novorizontino are favourites for this Novorizontino v Ponte Preta, with a 79% win probability from our model. On recent form, Novorizontino have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Ponte Preta are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

79%
Novorizontino (Win)
14%
Draw
7%
Ponte Preta (Win)

Double chance

93%
Novorizontino or draw
21%
Ponte Preta or draw
86%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Novorizontino – Ponte Preta. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Novorizontino 2-0 Ponte Preta13.2%
Novorizontino 3-0 Ponte Preta11.5%
Novorizontino 1-0 Ponte Preta10.2%
Novorizontino 2-1 Ponte Preta8.5%
Novorizontino 4-0 Ponte Preta7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.24 goals in total (2.60 for Novorizontino, 0.64 for Ponte Preta): over 2.5 goals has a 63% probability and both teams to score 44%. Everything points to an open game. Novorizontino keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Ponte Preta in 7%.

Probability
Novorizontino expected goals2.60
Ponte Preta expected goals0.64
Both teams to score44%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Novorizontino clean sheet53%
Ponte Preta clean sheet7%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Novorizontino

DateOpponentScore
Oct 8, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 2, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 25, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Sep 19, 2026Ceara · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B1-1D

Ponte Preta

DateOpponentScore
Oct 7, 2026Juventude · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Oct 3, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 29, 2026Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 20, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 15, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B0-6L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Novorizontino35732
Ponte Preta201332

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 23, 2026Ponte Preta 0-2 NovorizontinoBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Novorizontino

No absences reported.

Ponte Preta

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Novorizontino

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Gabriel Bahia5/5
  • Jordi5/5
  • Luis Oyama5/5
  • Reidiney5/5
  • Robson5/5
  • Romulo5/5
  • Madson4/5
  • Nicolas Careca4/5
  • Patrick4/5
  • Sander4/5
  • Matheus Bianqui3/5

Ponte Preta

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • S. Palacios5/5
  • Brandao4/5
  • Danilo Barcelos4/5
  • Denis4/5
  • Vinicius Ferrari4/5
  • David da Hora3/5
  • Gabriel Caran3/5
  • Jonathan3/5
  • Rodrigo Souza3/5
  • Andre Lima2/5
  • E. Ferreira2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Novorizontino a 79% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Ponte Preta 7%. Novorizontino are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?

2-0 (13.2%), followed by 3-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.5%) and 4-0 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?

The probability that both Novorizontino and Ponte Preta score is 44%. Novorizontino have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ponte Preta 7%.

How many goals should we expect in Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 3.24 goals (2.60 for Novorizontino, 0.64 for Ponte Preta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.

When and where is Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta played?

Monday, October 12, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33. Venue: Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons.

What form are Novorizontino and Ponte Preta in?

Novorizontino: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded). Ponte Preta: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 12 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Novorizontino and Ponte Preta?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Novorizontino, 0 for Ponte Preta and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 0-2 Novorizontino (Jun 23, 2026).

What was the Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Novorizontino 5-1 Ponte Preta. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Novorizontino was the model's favourite outcome (79%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.

How is the Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.60 for Novorizontino, 0.64 for Ponte Preta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained