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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)

Botafogo SP vs Ceara: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP1 – 0CearaCeara

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Botafogo SP 1-0 Ceara. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ceara (46%), while victory for Botafogo SP was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Botafogo SP and Ceara met on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33 fixture. Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto. Before kick-off, our model gave Botafogo SP a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ceara 46%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%) and 1-2 (9.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Botafogo SP have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Ceara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Ceara therefore arrive in far better shape than Botafogo SP. On average Botafogo SP score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Ceara score 1.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Botafogo SP sit 16th with 38 points from 32 games, Ceara 14th with 42 points from 32. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Botafogo SP have averaged 1.14 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Ceara.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Botafogo SP, 0 for Ceara and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ceara 0-1 Botafogo SP (Jun 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Botafogo SP or draw" stands at 54%, "Ceara or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Our model backs Ceara to edge Botafogo SP (46% probability). In the table, Botafogo SP (16th, 38 pts) host Ceara (14th, 42 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 54%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

29%
Botafogo SP (Win)
25%
Draw
46%
Ceara (Win)

Double chance

54%
Botafogo SP or draw
71%
Ceara or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Botafogo SP – Ceara. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Botafogo SP 1-1 Ceara12.0%
Botafogo SP 0-1 Ceara10.2%
Botafogo SP 1-2 Ceara9.2%
Botafogo SP 0-2 Ceara7.9%
Botafogo SP 1-0 Ceara7.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.17 expected goals for Botafogo SP and 1.54 for Ceara, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Botafogo SP keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Ceara in 31%.

Probability
Botafogo SP expected goals1.17
Ceara expected goals1.54
Both teams to score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Botafogo SP clean sheet21%
Ceara clean sheet31%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Botafogo SP

DateOpponentScore
Oct 7, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Oct 3, 2026Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Sep 29, 2026Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 19, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 14, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-3L

Ceara

DateOpponentScore
Oct 8, 2026Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Oct 3, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Sep 19, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Sep 13, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Botafogo SP163832
Ceara144232

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 20, 2026Ceara 0-1 Botafogo SPBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Botafogo SP

No absences reported.

Ceara

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Botafogo SP

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Everton Morelli5/5
  • Patrick Brey5/5
  • Victor Souza5/5
  • Vilar5/5
  • Hygor4/5
  • Rafael Gava4/5
  • Ericson3/5
  • Kelvin3/5
  • Pedro Henrique3/5
  • Arthur Caike2/5
  • Leandro Maciel2/5

Ceara

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Luiz Otavio8/5
  • Enzo Lodovico5/5
  • Joao Gabriel5/5
  • Richard5/5
  • Melk4/5
  • Sanchez4/5
  • Bryan Borges3/5
  • Julio Cesar3/5
  • Saulo Mineiro3/5
  • Luiz Otávio2/5
  • M. N. Ferreira Berrondo2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Botafogo SP vs Ceara prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Botafogo SP a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ceara 46%. Ceara are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Botafogo SP vs Ceara?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.9%) and 1-0 (7.8%).

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Ceara?

The probability that both Botafogo SP and Ceara score is 54%. Botafogo SP have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ceara 31%.

How many goals should we expect in Botafogo SP vs Ceara?

The model expects 2.71 goals (1.17 for Botafogo SP, 1.54 for Ceara). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Botafogo SP vs Ceara played?

Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33. Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto.

What form are Botafogo SP and Ceara in?

Botafogo SP: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Ceara: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo SP and Ceara?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Botafogo SP, 0 for Ceara and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ceara 0-1 Botafogo SP (Jun 20, 2026).

What was the Botafogo SP vs Ceara result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Botafogo SP 1-0 Ceara. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ceara (46%), while victory for Botafogo SP was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Botafogo SP vs Ceara prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.17 for Botafogo SP, 1.54 for Ceara) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained