Skip to content
Elofoot

Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife0 – 2Vila NovaVila Nova

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Nautico Recife 0-2 Vila Nova. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nautico Recife (64%), while victory for Vila Nova was rated at only 7%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (16%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (20%): correct.

Match analysis

Nautico Recife and Vila Nova met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33 fixture. Venue: Estádio dos Aflitos, Recife. Before kick-off, our model gave Nautico Recife a 64% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Vila Nova 7%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (27.6%), followed by 0-0 (21.2%) and 2-0 (17.9%).

Nautico Recife have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 10. Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 1. Vila Nova therefore arrive in far better shape than Nautico Recife. On average Nautico Recife score 1.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Vila Nova score 1.00 and concede 0.20. In the table, Nautico Recife sit 13th with 42 points from 32 games, Vila Nova 2nd with 58 points from 32. 11 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nautico Recife, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico Recife (Jun 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Nautico Recife or draw" stands at 93%, "Vila Nova or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 71%.

In short : Our model backs Nautico Recife to edge Vila Nova (64% probability). In the table, Nautico Recife (13th, 42 pts) host Vila Nova (2nd, 58 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

64%
Nautico Recife (Win)
29%
Draw
7%
Vila Nova (Win)

Double chance

93%
Nautico Recife or draw
36%
Vila Nova or draw
71%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Nautico Recife – Vila Nova. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (27.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 81% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Nautico Recife 1-0 Vila Nova27.6%
Nautico Recife 0-0 Vila Nova21.2%
Nautico Recife 2-0 Vila Nova17.9%
Nautico Recife 3-0 Vila Nova7.8%
Nautico Recife 1-1 Vila Nova6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.30 expected goals for Nautico Recife and 0.25 for Vila Nova, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 20% and "both teams to score" at 16%. Few goals are expected here. Nautico Recife keep a clean sheet in 78% of scenarios, Vila Nova in 27%.

Probability
Nautico Recife expected goals1.30
Vila Nova expected goals0.25
Both teams to score16%
Over 1.5 goals46%
Over 2.5 goals20%
Over 3.5 goals7%
Nautico Recife clean sheet78%
Vila Nova clean sheet27%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Nautico Recife

DateOpponentScore
Oct 8, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Oct 3, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 26, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B3-1W
Sep 22, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B0-3L
Sep 15, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B3-3D

Vila Nova

DateOpponentScore
Oct 8, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Oct 3, 2026Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 18, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 15, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Nautico Recife134232
Vila Nova25832

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 20, 2026Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico RecifeBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Nautico Recife

No absences reported.

Vila Nova

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Nautico Recife

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Jean Carlos5/5
  • Wenderson5/5
  • Betao4/5
  • Igor Fernandes4/5
  • Muriel Becker4/5
  • Vinicius4/5
  • Arnaldo3/5
  • Derek3/5
  • Samuel Felix3/5
  • B. Borasi2/5
  • Junior Todinho2/5

Vila Nova

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Douglas Mendes5/5
  • Dudu5/5
  • Everton Galdino5/5
  • Helton Leite5/5
  • Janderson5/5
  • Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
  • Andre Luis4/5
  • Hayner4/5
  • Higor4/5
  • Joao Vieira4/5
  • Jonathan Costa3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Nautico Recife a 64% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Vila Nova 7%. Nautico Recife are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?

1-0 (27.6%), followed by 0-0 (21.2%), 2-0 (17.9%), 3-0 (7.8%) and 1-1 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?

The probability that both Nautico Recife and Vila Nova score is 16%. Nautico Recife have a 78% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vila Nova 27%.

How many goals should we expect in Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 1.55 goals (1.30 for Nautico Recife, 0.25 for Vila Nova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 46%, over 2.5 goals 20%, over 3.5 goals 7%.

When and where is Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova played?

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33. Venue: Estádio dos Aflitos, Recife.

What form are Nautico Recife and Vila Nova in?

Nautico Recife: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded). Vila Nova: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 1 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Nautico Recife and Vila Nova?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nautico Recife, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico Recife (Jun 20, 2026).

What was the Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Nautico Recife 0-2 Vila Nova. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nautico Recife (64%), while victory for Vila Nova was rated at only 7%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (16%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (20%): correct.

How is the Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.30 for Nautico Recife, 0.25 for Vila Nova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained