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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)

Cuiaba vs Avai: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

CuiabaCuiaba0 – 1AvaiAvai

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Cuiaba 0-1 Avai. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cuiaba (53%), while victory for Avai was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.

Match analysis

Cuiaba vs Avai was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33). Venue: Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba. Before kick-off, our model gave Cuiaba a 53% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Avai 25%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.5%), ahead of 1-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Cuiaba have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Avai have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Cuiaba. On average Cuiaba score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Avai score 0.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Cuiaba sit 10th with 47 points from 32 games, Avai 17th with 33 points from 32. 7 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cuiaba, 1 for Avai and 0 draws. The most recent ended Avai 1-0 Cuiaba (Jun 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cuiaba or draw" stands at 75%, "Avai or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Cuiaba are tipped by our AI model in this Cuiaba v Avai (53%). In the table, Cuiaba (10th, 47 pts) host Avai (17th, 33 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Cuiaba (Win)
22%
Draw
25%
Avai (Win)

Double chance

75%
Cuiaba or draw
47%
Avai or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Cuiaba – Avai. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Cuiaba 2-1 Avai9.5%
Cuiaba 1-1 Avai9.4%
Cuiaba 2-0 Avai7.2%
Cuiaba 1-0 Avai7.1%
Cuiaba 3-1 Avai6.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.35 goals in total (2.02 for Cuiaba, 1.33 for Avai): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 64%. Everything points to an open game. Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Avai in 13%.

Probability
Cuiaba expected goals2.02
Avai expected goals1.33
Both teams to score64%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Cuiaba clean sheet26%
Avai clean sheet13%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Cuiaba

DateOpponentScore
Oct 8, 2026Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Oct 3, 2026Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 27, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B0-3L
Sep 22, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 13, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-1D

Avai

DateOpponentScore
Oct 7, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Oct 3, 2026Ceara · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Sep 27, 2026Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B0-3L
Sep 20, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Sep 15, 2026Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Cuiaba104732
Avai173332

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 21, 2026Avai 1-0 CuiabaBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Cuiaba

No absences reported.

Avai

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Cuiaba

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • David Miguel5/5
  • Jean Dias5/5
  • Lorenzo5/5
  • Raul5/5
  • Fabio Gomes4/5
  • Igor Inocencio4/5
  • Joao Carlos4/5
  • Kauan Cristtyan4/5
  • Vitor Mendes4/5
  • Calebe Costa3/5
  • Luis Soares3/5

Avai

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Allyson5/5
  • Bruno Ferreira5/5
  • Daniel Penha4/5
  • Jean Lucas4/5
  • Reynaldo4/5
  • Douglas Teixeira3/5
  • Gabriel Simples3/5
  • Jefferson Maciel3/5
  • Paulo Vitor3/5
  • Rildo3/5
  • Ze Ricardo3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Cuiaba vs Avai prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Cuiaba a 53% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Avai 25%. Cuiaba are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Cuiaba vs Avai?

2-1 (9.5%), followed by 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%), 1-0 (7.1%) and 3-1 (6.4%).

Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Avai?

The probability that both Cuiaba and Avai score is 64%. Cuiaba have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Avai 13%.

How many goals should we expect in Cuiaba vs Avai?

The model expects 3.35 goals (2.02 for Cuiaba, 1.33 for Avai). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.

When and where is Cuiaba vs Avai played?

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 33. Venue: Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba.

What form are Cuiaba and Avai in?

Cuiaba: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). Avai: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Avai?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cuiaba, 1 for Avai and 0 draws. The most recent ended Avai 1-0 Cuiaba (Jun 21, 2026).

What was the Cuiaba vs Avai result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Cuiaba 0-1 Avai. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cuiaba (53%), while victory for Avai was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.

How is the Cuiaba vs Avai prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.02 for Cuiaba, 1.33 for Avai) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained