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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP0 – 1Vila NovaVila Nova

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Vila Nova at 40%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

Botafogo SP and Vila Nova met on Saturday, October 3, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31 fixture. Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto. Before kick-off, our model gave Botafogo SP a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 40%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%) and 1-0 (9.2%).

Botafogo SP have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Vila Nova have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Vila Nova therefore arrive in far better shape than Botafogo SP. On average Botafogo SP score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Vila Nova score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Botafogo SP sit 16th with 35 points from 30 games, Vila Nova 2nd with 54 points from 30. 14 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Botafogo SP, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SP (Jun 9, 2026). In double chance terms, "Botafogo SP or draw" stands at 60%, "Vila Nova or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Botafogo SP host Vila Nova in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (26%). On recent form, Botafogo SP have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Vila Nova have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

34%
Botafogo SP (Win)
26%
Draw
40%
Vila Nova (Win)

Double chance

60%
Botafogo SP or draw
66%
Vila Nova or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Botafogo SP – Vila Nova. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Botafogo SP 1-1 Vila Nova12.5%
Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova10.2%
Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova9.2%
Botafogo SP 1-2 Vila Nova8.5%
Botafogo SP 2-1 Vila Nova7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.23 expected goals for Botafogo SP and 1.36 for Vila Nova, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Botafogo SP keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Vila Nova in 29%.

Probability
Botafogo SP expected goals1.23
Vila Nova expected goals1.36
Both teams to score53%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Botafogo SP clean sheet26%
Vila Nova clean sheet29%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Botafogo SP

DateOpponentScore
Sep 29, 2026Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 19, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 14, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Sep 9, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Sep 4, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B0-1L

Vila Nova

DateOpponentScore
Sep 26, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 18, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 15, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 10, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 5, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B0-5L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Botafogo SP163530
Vila Nova25430

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 9, 2026Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SPBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Botafogo SP

No absences reported.

Vila Nova

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Botafogo SP

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Everton Morelli5/5
  • Victor Souza5/5
  • Vilar5/5
  • Ericson4/5
  • Hygor4/5
  • Kelvin4/5
  • Patrick Brey4/5
  • Rafael Gava4/5
  • Wallace3/5
  • Arthur Caíke2/5
  • Gabriel Inocêncio2/5

Vila Nova

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Helton Leite5/5
  • Janderson5/5
  • Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
  • André Luís4/5
  • Douglas Mendes4/5
  • Dudu4/5
  • Everton Galdino4/5
  • Hayner4/5
  • João Vieira4/5
  • Jonathan Costa4/5
  • Willian Formiga3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Botafogo SP a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 40%. Vila Nova are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

The probability that both Botafogo SP and Vila Nova score is 53%. Botafogo SP have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vila Nova 29%.

How many goals should we expect in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.59 goals (1.23 for Botafogo SP, 1.36 for Vila Nova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31. Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto.

What form are Botafogo SP and Vila Nova in?

Botafogo SP: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Vila Nova: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo SP and Vila Nova?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Botafogo SP, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SP (Jun 9, 2026).

What was the Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Vila Nova at 40%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.23 for Botafogo SP, 1.36 for Vila Nova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained