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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova prediction: correct score and AI tips

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP–Vila NovaVila Nova

Match analysis

Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31: the Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto. It is a tight call: 31% for Botafogo SP, 26% for the draw and 43% for Vila Nova. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.7%) and 1-2 (8.8%).

Botafogo SP have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Vila Nova have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Vila Nova therefore arrive in far better shape than Botafogo SP. On average Botafogo SP score 0.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Vila Nova score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Botafogo SP sit 16th with 32 points from 29 games, Vila Nova 1st with 51 points from 29. 15 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Botafogo SP, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SP (Jun 9, 2026). In double chance terms, "Botafogo SP or draw" stands at 57%, "Vila Nova or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Vila Nova are tipped by our AI model in this Botafogo SP v Vila Nova (43%). On recent form, Botafogo SP are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Vila Nova have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

31%
Botafogo SP (Win)
26%
Draw
43%
Vila Nova (Win)

Double chance

57%
Botafogo SP or draw
69%
Vila Nova or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Botafogo SP – Vila Nova. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Botafogo SP 1-1 Vila Nova12.5%
Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova10.7%
Botafogo SP 1-2 Vila Nova8.8%
Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova8.8%
Botafogo SP 0-2 Vila Nova7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.17 expected goals for Botafogo SP and 1.42 for Vila Nova, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Botafogo SP keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Vila Nova in 31%.

Probability
Botafogo SP expected goals1.17
Vila Nova expected goals1.42
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Botafogo SP clean sheet24%
Vila Nova clean sheet31%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Botafogo SP

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 14, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Sep 9, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Sep 4, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Aug 29, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B1-2L

Vila Nova

DateOpponentScore
Sep 18, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 15, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 10, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 5, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B0-5L
Aug 30, 2026Ceara · Brasileirão Série B2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Botafogo SP163229
Vila Nova15129

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 9, 2026Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SPBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Botafogo SP

No absences reported.

Vila Nova

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Botafogo SP

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Everton Morelli5/5
  • Hygor5/5
  • Victor Souza5/5
  • Vilar5/5
  • Ericson4/5
  • Rafael Gava4/5
  • Kelvin3/5
  • Patrick Brey3/5
  • Wallace3/5
  • Felipe Vieira2/5
  • Gabriel Inocencio2/5

Vila Nova

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Helton Leite5/5
  • Janderson5/5
  • Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
  • Dudu4/5
  • Everton Galdino4/5
  • Hayner4/5
  • André Luís3/5
  • Douglas Mendes3/5
  • João Vieira3/5
  • Jonathan Costa3/5
  • Willian Formiga3/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova prediction?

Our AI gives Botafogo SP a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 43%. Vila Nova are therefore slight favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (8.8%), 1-0 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

The probability that both Botafogo SP and Vila Nova score is 52%. Botafogo SP have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vila Nova 31%.

How many goals should we expect in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.59 goals (1.17 for Botafogo SP, 1.42 for Vila Nova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31. Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto.

What form are Botafogo SP and Vila Nova in?

Botafogo SP: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 10 conceded). Vila Nova: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo SP and Vila Nova?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Botafogo SP, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 1-0 Botafogo SP (Jun 9, 2026).

How is the Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.17 for Botafogo SP, 1.42 for Vila Nova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained