Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 01:35 (UK time)
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31: the Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 01:35 (UK time). With a 60% win probability, Fortaleza EC go in as strong favourites against Nautico Recife (18%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (10.9%) and 1-1 (10.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fortaleza EC have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Nautico Recife have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Fortaleza EC score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Nautico Recife score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, Fortaleza EC sit 2nd with 51 points from 29 games, Nautico Recife 14th with 38 points from 29. 12 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fortaleza EC, 0 for Nautico Recife and 0 draws. The most recent ended Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC (Jun 9, 2026). In double chance terms, "Fortaleza EC or draw" stands at 82%, "Nautico Recife or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Fortaleza EC are tipped by our AI model in this Fortaleza EC v Nautico Recife (60%). In the table, Fortaleza EC (2nd, 51 pts) host Nautico Recife (14th, 38 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fortaleza EC – Nautico Recife. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC 1-0 Nautico Recife | 11.8% |
| Fortaleza EC 2-0 Nautico Recife | 10.9% |
| Fortaleza EC 1-1 Nautico Recife | 10.6% |
| Fortaleza EC 2-1 Nautico Recife | 9.9% |
| Fortaleza EC 3-0 Nautico Recife | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.76 goals in total (1.86 for Fortaleza EC, 0.90 for Nautico Recife): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 50%. Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Nautico Recife in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC expected goals | 1.86 |
| Nautico Recife expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Fortaleza EC clean sheet | 41% |
| Nautico Recife clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Fortaleza EC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Palmeiras · Copa do Brasil | 0-3 | L |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B | 0-1 | L |
Nautico Recife
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 2 | 51 | 29 |
| Nautico Recife | 14 | 38 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
Fortaleza EC
No absences reported.
Nautico Recife
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Fortaleza EC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinho5/5
- J. B. Miritello4/5
- Joao Ricardo4/5
- Lucas Gazal4/5
- Lucas Sasha4/5
- Luiz Fernando4/5
- Neris4/5
- G. Fuentes3/5
- Mauricio Junior3/5
- Pedro Henrique3/5
- Rodrigo3/5
Nautico Recife
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Igor Fernandes5/5
- Jean Carlos5/5
- Wenderson5/5
- B. Borasi4/5
- Alberto3/5
- Arnaldo3/5
- Derek3/5
- Kaua Almeida da Costa3/5
- Muriel3/5
- Vinícius3/5
- Leo Indio2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Botafogo SP – Ponte PretaSep 29, 2026
- Athletic Club – Sport RecifeOct 2, 2026
- Novorizontino – GoiasOct 2, 2026
- São Bernardo – CRBOct 2, 2026
- Londrina – CriciumaOct 3, 2026
- Juventude – Operario-PROct 3, 2026
- Avai – CearaOct 3, 2026
- Atletico Goianiense – America MineiroOct 3, 2026
- Cuiaba – Ponte PretaOct 3, 2026
- Botafogo SP – Vila NovaOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife prediction?
Our AI gives Fortaleza EC a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nautico Recife 18%. Fortaleza EC are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
The probability that both Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife score is 50%. Fortaleza EC have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nautico Recife 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
The model expects 2.76 goals (1.86 for Fortaleza EC, 0.90 for Nautico Recife). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 01:35 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife in?
Fortaleza EC: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). Nautico Recife: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fortaleza EC, 0 for Nautico Recife and 0 draws. The most recent ended Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC (Jun 9, 2026).
How is the Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.86 for Fortaleza EC, 0.90 for Nautico Recife) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fortaleza EC predictions
- All Nautico Recife predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology