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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta prediction: correct score and AI tips

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP–Ponte PretaPonte Preta

Match analysis

Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30: the Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta match is scheduled on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto. Our model makes Botafogo SP clear favourites: a 61% chance of winning, against 22% for the draw and 17% for Ponte Preta. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.4%).

Botafogo SP have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 10. Ponte Preta have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 12. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Botafogo SP score 0.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Ponte Preta score 0.20 and concede 2.40. In the table, Botafogo SP sit 16th with 32 points from 29 games, Ponte Preta 20th with 13 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Botafogo SP, 0 for Ponte Preta and 1 draw. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 0-0 Botafogo SP (Jun 1, 2026). In double chance terms, "Botafogo SP or draw" stands at 83%, "Ponte Preta or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Botafogo SP are favourites for this Botafogo SP v Ponte Preta, with a 61% win probability from our model. In the table, Botafogo SP (16th, 32 pts) host Ponte Preta (20th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

61%
Botafogo SP (Win)
22%
Draw
17%
Ponte Preta (Win)

Double chance

83%
Botafogo SP or draw
39%
Ponte Preta or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Botafogo SP – Ponte Preta. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Botafogo SP 1-0 Ponte Preta11.8%
Botafogo SP 2-0 Ponte Preta11.2%
Botafogo SP 1-1 Ponte Preta10.4%
Botafogo SP 2-1 Ponte Preta9.9%
Botafogo SP 3-0 Ponte Preta7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.90 expected goals for Botafogo SP and 0.88 for Ponte Preta, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Botafogo SP keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Ponte Preta in 15%.

Probability
Botafogo SP expected goals1.90
Ponte Preta expected goals0.88
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Botafogo SP clean sheet42%
Ponte Preta clean sheet15%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Botafogo SP

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 14, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Sep 9, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Sep 4, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Aug 29, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B1-2L

Ponte Preta

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 15, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B0-6L
Sep 11, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 6, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Aug 30, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Botafogo SP163229
Ponte Preta201329

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 1, 2026Ponte Preta 0-0 Botafogo SPBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Botafogo SP

No absences reported.

Ponte Preta

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Botafogo SP

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Everton Morelli5/5
  • Hygor5/5
  • Victor Souza5/5
  • Vilar5/5
  • Ericson4/5
  • Rafael Gava4/5
  • Kelvin3/5
  • Patrick Brey3/5
  • Wallace3/5
  • Felipe Vieira2/5
  • Gabriel Inocencio2/5

Ponte Preta

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Danilo Barcelos4/5
  • Gustavo Almeida4/5
  • David da Hora3/5
  • Julio3/5
  • Lucas Cunha3/5
  • Murilo3/5
  • S. Palacios3/5
  • Vinicius3/5
  • André Lima2/5
  • Brandão2/5
  • Diego Monteiro Leao2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta prediction?

Our AI gives Botafogo SP a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ponte Preta 17%. Botafogo SP are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?

1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?

The probability that both Botafogo SP and Ponte Preta score is 50%. Botafogo SP have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ponte Preta 15%.

How many goals should we expect in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 2.78 goals (1.90 for Botafogo SP, 0.88 for Ponte Preta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.

When and where is Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30. Venue: Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto.

What form are Botafogo SP and Ponte Preta in?

Botafogo SP: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 10 conceded). Ponte Preta: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 12 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo SP and Ponte Preta?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Botafogo SP, 0 for Ponte Preta and 1 draw. The most recent ended Ponte Preta 0-0 Botafogo SP (Jun 1, 2026).

How is the Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Botafogo SP, 0.88 for Ponte Preta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained