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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Criciuma vs Avai: 3-0 result and AI prediction review

CriciumaCriciuma3 – 0AvaiAvai

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Criciuma 3-0 Avai. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Criciuma at 58%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.

Match analysis

Criciuma and Avai met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma. Before kick-off, our model gave Criciuma a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Avai 16%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.4%), followed by 2-0 (13.1%) and 0-0 (11.5%).

Criciuma have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 10. Avai have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Criciuma score 0.60 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Avai score 0.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Criciuma sit 7th with 47 points from 29 games, Avai 17th with 30 points from 29. 10 places separate the two sides.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Criciuma, 1 for Avai and 1 draw. The most recent ended Avai 1-2 Criciuma (May 30, 2026). In double chance terms, "Criciuma or draw" stands at 84%, "Avai or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Our model backs Criciuma to edge Avai (58% probability). In the table, Criciuma (7th, 47 pts) host Avai (17th, 30 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

58%
Criciuma (Win)
26%
Draw
16%
Avai (Win)

Double chance

84%
Criciuma or draw
42%
Avai or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Criciuma – Avai. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Criciuma 1-0 Avai17.4%
Criciuma 2-0 Avai13.1%
Criciuma 0-0 Avai11.5%
Criciuma 1-1 Avai11.3%
Criciuma 2-1 Avai8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.51 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.65 for Avai, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 37% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Criciuma keep a clean sheet in 52% of scenarios, Avai in 22%.

Probability
Criciuma expected goals1.51
Avai expected goals0.65
Both teams to score37%
Over 1.5 goals64%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Criciuma clean sheet52%
Avai clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Criciuma

DateOpponentScore
Sep 22, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 13, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B0-4L
Sep 9, 2026Juventude · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Sep 4, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Aug 30, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B1-2L

Avai

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Sep 15, 2026Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 9, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Sep 5, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-3L
Aug 30, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Criciuma74729
Avai173029

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 30, 2026Avai 1-2 CriciumaSerie B
Jan 11, 2026Criciuma 2-1 AvaiCatarinense - 1
Oct 19, 2025Avai 1-1 CriciumaSerie B
Jun 28, 2025Criciuma 1-2 AvaiSerie B
Feb 22, 2025Avai 0-3 CriciumaCatarinense - 1

Out and doubtful

Criciuma

No absences reported.

Avai

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Criciuma

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Airton5/5
  • Marcelo Hermes5/5
  • Rodrigo5/5
  • Waguininho5/5
  • R. Otero4/5
  • César Martins3/5
  • Luciano Castán3/5
  • Ronald3/5
  • Willean Lepo3/5
  • Bruno Alves2/5
  • Cesar Martins2/5

Avai

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Allyson5/5
  • Jean Lucas5/5
  • Paulo Vitor5/5
  • Reynaldo5/5
  • Bruno Ferreira4/5
  • Zé Ricardo3/5
  • Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira2/5
  • Daniel Penha2/5
  • DG2/5
  • Douglas Teixeira2/5
  • F. Vizeu2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Criciuma vs Avai prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Criciuma a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Avai 16%. Criciuma are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Criciuma vs Avai?

1-0 (17.4%), followed by 2-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-1 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Avai?

The probability that both Criciuma and Avai score is 37%. Criciuma have a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Avai 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Criciuma vs Avai?

The model expects 2.16 goals (1.51 for Criciuma, 0.65 for Avai). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 17%.

When and where is Criciuma vs Avai played?

Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30. Venue: Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma.

What form are Criciuma and Avai in?

Criciuma: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded). Avai: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Avai?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Criciuma, 1 for Avai and 1 draw. The most recent ended Avai 1-2 Criciuma (May 30, 2026).

What was the Criciuma vs Avai result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Criciuma 3-0 Avai. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Criciuma at 58%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.

How is the Criciuma vs Avai prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.51 for Criciuma, 0.65 for Avai) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained