Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)
Novorizontino vs São Bernardo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Novorizontino take on São Bernardo on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons. With a 63% win probability, Novorizontino go in as strong favourites against São Bernardo (14%), with the draw rated at 23%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.7%), ahead of 2-0 (13.6%) and 1-1 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Novorizontino have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, São Bernardo have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Novorizontino score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; São Bernardo score 1.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Novorizontino sit 3rd with 50 points from 29 games, São Bernardo 12th with 41 points from 29. 9 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Novorizontino, 0 for São Bernardo and 1 draw. The most recent ended São Bernardo 1-1 Novorizontino (May 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Novorizontino or draw" stands at 86%, "São Bernardo or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Novorizontino are favourites for this Novorizontino v São Bernardo, with a 63% win probability from our model. In the table, Novorizontino (3rd, 50 pts) host São Bernardo (12th, 41 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Novorizontino – São Bernardo. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Novorizontino 1-0 São Bernardo | 15.7% |
| Novorizontino 2-0 São Bernardo | 13.6% |
| Novorizontino 1-1 São Bernardo | 10.5% |
| Novorizontino 2-1 São Bernardo | 9.1% |
| Novorizontino 0-0 São Bernardo | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.40 goals in total (1.73 for Novorizontino, 0.67 for São Bernardo): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 40%. Novorizontino keep a clean sheet in 51% of scenarios, São Bernardo in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Novorizontino expected goals | 1.73 |
| São Bernardo expected goals | 0.67 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 51% |
| São Bernardo clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Novorizontino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ceara · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Avai · Brasileirão Série B | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
São Bernardo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Londrina · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Goias · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 3 | 50 | 29 |
| São Bernardo | 12 | 41 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | São Bernardo 1-1 Novorizontino | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
Novorizontino
No absences reported.
São Bernardo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Novorizontino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Bahia5/5
- Jordi5/5
- Luis Oyama5/5
- Madson5/5
- Patrick5/5
- Reidiney5/5
- Robson5/5
- Romulo5/5
- Nicolas Careca4/5
- Leo Naldi2/5
- Léo Naldi2/5
São Bernardo
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Alex Alves4/4
- Felipe Garcia4/4
- Jemerson4/4
- Pedrinho4/4
- Rodrigo Ferreira4/4
- Romisson4/4
- Augusto3/4
- Foguinho3/4
- Dudu Miraima2/4
- Eduardo2/4
- Mário Sérgio2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Vila Nova – LondrinaSep 26, 2026
- Nautico Recife – Sport RecifeSep 26, 2026
- Operario-PR – CearaSep 26, 2026
- Goias – Atletico GoianienseSep 26, 2026
- Criciuma – AvaiSep 27, 2026
- CRB – CuiabaSep 27, 2026
- Fortaleza EC – Athletic ClubSep 27, 2026
- America Mineiro – JuventudeSep 28, 2026
- Botafogo SP – Ponte PretaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Novorizontino vs São Bernardo prediction?
Our AI gives Novorizontino a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and São Bernardo 14%. Novorizontino are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?
1-0 (15.7%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 0-0 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?
The probability that both Novorizontino and São Bernardo score is 40%. Novorizontino have a 51% chance of keeping a clean sheet, São Bernardo 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?
The model expects 2.40 goals (1.73 for Novorizontino, 0.67 for São Bernardo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Novorizontino vs São Bernardo played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30. Venue: Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons.
What form are Novorizontino and São Bernardo in?
Novorizontino: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). São Bernardo: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Novorizontino and São Bernardo?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Novorizontino, 0 for São Bernardo and 1 draw. The most recent ended São Bernardo 1-1 Novorizontino (May 31, 2026).
How is the Novorizontino vs São Bernardo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.73 for Novorizontino, 0.67 for São Bernardo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Novorizontino predictions
- All São Bernardo predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology