Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Fortaleza EC take on Athletic Club on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza. Fortaleza EC start as favourites with a 58% chance of victory; Athletic Club are given 19% and the draw 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%) and 2-0 (10.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fortaleza EC have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Fortaleza EC score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Athletic Club score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Fortaleza EC sit 2nd with 51 points from 29 games, Athletic Club 13th with 41 points from 29. 11 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. The most recent ended Athletic Club 1-0 Fortaleza EC (May 30, 2026). In double chance terms, "Fortaleza EC or draw" stands at 81%, "Athletic Club or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Fortaleza EC to edge Athletic Club (58% probability). On recent form, Fortaleza EC have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Athletic Club have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fortaleza EC – Athletic Club. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC 1-0 Athletic Club | 11.8% |
| Fortaleza EC 1-1 Athletic Club | 11.0% |
| Fortaleza EC 2-0 Athletic Club | 10.6% |
| Fortaleza EC 2-1 Athletic Club | 9.8% |
| Fortaleza EC 0-0 Athletic Club | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.79 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.93 for Athletic Club, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Athletic Club in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC expected goals | 1.79 |
| Athletic Club expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Fortaleza EC clean sheet | 40% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Fortaleza EC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Palmeiras · Copa do Brasil | 0-3 | L |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B | 0-1 | L |
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventude · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 2 | 51 | 29 |
| Athletic Club | 13 | 41 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-0 Fortaleza EC | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
Fortaleza EC
No absences reported.
Athletic Club
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Fortaleza EC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinho5/5
- J. B. Miritello4/5
- Joao Ricardo4/5
- Lucas Gazal4/5
- Lucas Sasha4/5
- Luiz Fernando4/5
- Neris4/5
- G. Fuentes3/5
- Mauricio Junior3/5
- Pedro Henrique3/5
- Rodrigo3/5
Athletic Club
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Luan Polli5/5
- Max4/5
- Carlinhos3/5
- D. Vera3/5
- Felipe Negrucci3/5
- Jhonatan3/5
- João Miguel3/5
- Kauan3/5
- Kauan Lindes3/5
- Lucas Belezi3/5
- Yago Santos3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Novorizontino – São BernardoSep 25, 2026
- Vila Nova – LondrinaSep 26, 2026
- Nautico Recife – Sport RecifeSep 26, 2026
- Operario-PR – CearaSep 26, 2026
- Goias – Atletico GoianienseSep 26, 2026
- Criciuma – AvaiSep 27, 2026
- CRB – CuiabaSep 27, 2026
- America Mineiro – JuventudeSep 28, 2026
- Botafogo SP – Ponte PretaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club prediction?
Our AI gives Fortaleza EC a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Athletic Club 19%. Fortaleza EC are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
The probability that both Fortaleza EC and Athletic Club score is 50%. Fortaleza EC have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Athletic Club 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
The model expects 2.72 goals (1.79 for Fortaleza EC, 0.93 for Athletic Club). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 30. Venue: Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Athletic Club in?
Fortaleza EC: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). Athletic Club: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Athletic Club?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. The most recent ended Athletic Club 1-0 Fortaleza EC (May 30, 2026).
How is the Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.79 for Fortaleza EC, 0.93 for Athletic Club) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fortaleza EC predictions
- All Athletic Club predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology