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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Avai vs Ceara: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

AvaiAvai0 – 1CearaCeara

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Avai 0-1 Ceara. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Avai (37%), while victory for Ceara was rated at only 33%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): correct.

Match analysis

Avai vs Ceara was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31). Venue: Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis. Before kick-off, our model gave Avai a 37% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Ceara 33%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.9%), ahead of 1-1 (13.5%) and 0-0 (13.3%).

Avai have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Ceara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Ceara. On average Avai score 0.60 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Ceara score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Avai sit 17th with 30 points from 30 games, Ceara 15th with 36 points from 30. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Avai, 1 for Ceara and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ceara 2-1 Avai (Jun 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Avai or draw" stands at 67%, "Ceara or draw" at 63% and "no draw" at 69%.

In short : Avai host Ceara in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (31%). On recent form, Avai are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Ceara have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

37%
Avai (Win)
31%
Draw
33%
Ceara (Win)

Double chance

67%
Avai or draw
63%
Ceara or draw
69%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Avai – Ceara. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Avai 1-0 Ceara13.9%
Avai 1-1 Ceara13.5%
Avai 0-0 Ceara13.3%
Avai 0-1 Ceara12.9%
Avai 2-0 Ceara7.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.02 goals in total (1.05 for Avai, 0.97 for Ceara): over 2.5 goals has a 33% probability and both teams to score 40%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Avai keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Ceara in 35%.

Probability
Avai expected goals1.05
Ceara expected goals0.97
Both teams to score40%
Over 1.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals33%
Over 3.5 goals15%
Avai clean sheet38%
Ceara clean sheet35%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Avai

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B0-3L
Sep 20, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Sep 15, 2026Vila Nova · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 9, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Sep 5, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B1-3L

Ceara

DateOpponentScore
Sep 26, 2026Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Sep 19, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Sep 13, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Sep 10, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Sep 5, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Avai173030
Ceara153630

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 11, 2026Ceara 2-1 AvaiBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Avai

No absences reported.

Ceara

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Avai

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Allyson5/5
  • Paulo Vitor5/5
  • Reynaldo5/5
  • Bruno Ferreira4/5
  • Jean Lucas4/5
  • Zé Ricardo4/5
  • Daniel Penha3/5
  • DG3/5
  • Rildo3/5
  • Simples Gabriel3/5
  • Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira2/5

Ceara

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Richard9/5
  • Luiz Otávio7/5
  • Joao Gabriel5/5
  • Júlio4/5
  • Bryan3/5
  • Enzo3/5
  • Sanchez3/5
  • Saulo Mineiro3/5
  • Vinicius Zanocelo3/5
  • N. Ferreira2/5
  • Gabriel Rocha1/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Avai vs Ceara prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Avai a 37% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Ceara 33%. Avai are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Avai vs Ceara?

1-0 (13.9%), followed by 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.9%) and 2-0 (7.3%).

Will both teams score in Avai vs Ceara?

The probability that both Avai and Ceara score is 40%. Avai have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ceara 35%.

How many goals should we expect in Avai vs Ceara?

The model expects 2.02 goals (1.05 for Avai, 0.97 for Ceara). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.

When and where is Avai vs Ceara played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 31. Venue: Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis.

What form are Avai and Ceara in?

Avai: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded). Ceara: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Ceara?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Avai, 1 for Ceara and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ceara 2-1 Avai (Jun 11, 2026).

What was the Avai vs Ceara result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Avai 0-1 Ceara. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Avai (37%), while victory for Ceara was rated at only 33%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): correct.

How is the Avai vs Ceara prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.05 for Avai, 0.97 for Ceara) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained