Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 5: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time). Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. Our model makes 1. FC Köln clear favourites: a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for the draw and 21% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (6.6%), followed by 2-1 (6.4%) and 3-2 (6.0%).
1. FC Köln have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 11. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 14. Both sides come in with similar form. On average 1. FC Köln score 1.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Borussia Mönchengladbach score 2.00 and concede 2.80. In the table, 1. FC Köln sit 13th with 4 points from 4 games, Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th with 0 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, 1. FC Köln have averaged 2.40 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.36 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for 1. FC Köln, 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 3 draws. The most recent ended 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach (Mar 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "1. FC Köln or draw" stands at 79%, "Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : 1. FC Köln are favourites for this 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach, with a 63% win probability from our model. On recent form, 1. FC Köln have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Borussia Mönchengladbach have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as 1. FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 30% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6.6% |
| 1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6.4% |
| 1. FC Köln 3-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6.0% |
| 1. FC Köln 2-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5.8% |
| 1. FC Köln 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.10 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.83 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 87% and "both teams to score" at 80%. Goals look likely in this one. 1. FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln expected goals | 3.10 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach expected goals | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 16% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Viktoria Köln · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC St. Pauli · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Sportfreunde Siegen · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 13 | 4 | 4 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18 | 0 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-3 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1. FC Köln 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1. FC Köln 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
1. FC Köln
No absences reported.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
1. FC Köln
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- T. Krauss5/5
- A. Castro-Montes4/5
- G. Mensah4/5
- J. Simpson-Pusey4/5
- L. Lochoshvili4/5
- M. Schwabe4/5
- E. Skhiri3/5
- J. Thielmann3/5
- L. Maina3/5
- T. Dallinga3/5
- I. Johannesson2/5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Scally5/5
- P. Sander5/5
- F. Honorat4/5
- M. Nicolas4/5
- D. Herold3/5
- F. Neuhaus3/5
- H. Bolin3/5
- K. Diks3/5
- K. Itakura3/5
- R. Hack3/5
- T. Kleindienst3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenOct 9, 2026
- FC Augsburg – Bayern MünchenOct 10, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 – VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer LeverkusenOct 10, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SVOct 10, 2026
- Union Berlin – SV ElversbergOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
- SC Freiburg – FC Schalke 04Oct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction?
Our AI gives 1. FC Köln a 63% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 21%. 1. FC Köln are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
3-1 (6.6%), followed by 2-1 (6.4%), 3-2 (6.0%), 2-2 (5.8%) and 4-1 (5.1%).
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The probability that both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach score is 80%. 1. FC Köln have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5%.
How many goals should we expect in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The model expects 4.93 goals (3.10 for 1. FC Köln, 1.83 for Borussia Mönchengladbach). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 87%, over 3.5 goals 73%.
When and where is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5. Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
1. FC Köln: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded). Borussia Mönchengladbach: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for 1. FC Köln, 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 3 draws. The most recent ended 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach (Mar 21, 2026).
How is the 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.10 for 1. FC Köln, 1.83 for Borussia Mönchengladbach) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All 1. FC Köln predictions
- All Borussia Mönchengladbach predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology