Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 5: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time). With a 69% win probability, SV Elversberg go in as strong favourites against Union Berlin (12%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (12.3%), ahead of 0-1 (11.4%) and 1-2 (9.6%).
Union Berlin have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 19. Over their last 5 matches, SV Elversberg have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with SV Elversberg. On average Union Berlin score 1.60 and concede 3.80 goals per game; SV Elversberg score 2.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Union Berlin sit 17th with 1 points from 4 games, SV Elversberg 7th with 7 points from 4. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Union Berlin have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.51 for SV Elversberg.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Union Berlin out or doubtful: O. Burke, M. Friedrich, A. Ilic, J. Juranovic, A. Markgraf and S. Nsoki. SV Elversberg: L. Seifert. In double chance terms, "Union Berlin or draw" stands at 31%, "SV Elversberg or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Our model backs SV Elversberg to edge Union Berlin (69% probability). On recent form, Union Berlin have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while SV Elversberg have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 56%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union Berlin – SV Elversberg. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin 0-2 SV Elversberg | 12.3% |
| Union Berlin 0-1 SV Elversberg | 11.4% |
| Union Berlin 1-2 SV Elversberg | 9.6% |
| Union Berlin 1-1 SV Elversberg | 8.9% |
| Union Berlin 0-3 SV Elversberg | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.94 goals in total (0.78 for Union Berlin, 2.16 for SV Elversberg): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 48%. Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, SV Elversberg in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin expected goals | 0.78 |
| SV Elversberg expected goals | 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 12% |
| SV Elversberg clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Union Berlin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 0-7 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig · DFB-Pokal | 4-2 | W |
SV Elversberg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 4-3 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | MSV Duisburg · DFB-Pokal | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 17 | 1 | 4 |
| SV Elversberg | 7 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Union Berlin
- O. Burke (out)
- M. Friedrich (out)
- A. Ilic (out)
- J. Juranovic (out)
- A. Markgraf (out)
- S. Nsoki (out)
SV Elversberg
- L. Seifert (out)
Most regular starters
Union Berlin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Latte Lath5/5
- R. Khedira5/5
- T. Rothe5/5
- A. Kemlein4/5
- J. Juranovic4/5
- L. Querfeld4/5
- M. Aebischer4/5
- F. Uduokhai3/5
- Jeong Woo-Yeong3/5
- L. Burcu3/5
- Z. Van Den Bosch3/5
SV Elversberg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Keidel5/5
- J. Gyamerah5/5
- L. Petkov5/5
- M. Rohr5/5
- N. Kristof5/5
- C. Campbell4/5
- L. Gunther4/5
- L. Pinckert4/5
- L. Poreba4/5
- D. Mokwa Ntusu3/5
- F. Onyeka3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenOct 9, 2026
- FC Augsburg – Bayern MünchenOct 10, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 – VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer LeverkusenOct 10, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SVOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg prediction?
Our AI gives Union Berlin a 12% chance of winning, the draw 19% and SV Elversberg 69%. SV Elversberg are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
0-2 (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (11.4%), 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%) and 0-3 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
The probability that both Union Berlin and SV Elversberg score is 48%. Union Berlin have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SV Elversberg 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
The model expects 2.94 goals (0.78 for Union Berlin, 2.16 for SV Elversberg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5.
What form are Union Berlin and SV Elversberg in?
Union Berlin: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 19 conceded). SV Elversberg: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.78 for Union Berlin, 2.16 for SV Elversberg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union Berlin predictions
- All SV Elversberg predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology