Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 5: the 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time). Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim. 1899 Hoffenheim start as favourites with a 54% chance of victory; Hamburger SV are given 21% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (10.3%).
1899 Hoffenheim have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Both sides come in with similar form. On average 1899 Hoffenheim score 1.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Hamburger SV score 1.00 and concede 2.60. In the table, 1899 Hoffenheim sit 14th with 3 points from 4 games, Hamburger SV 16th with 3 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 1.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.01 for Hamburger SV.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hamburger SV 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim (Apr 25, 2026). 1899 Hoffenheim out or doubtful: Bernardo. Hamburger SV: S. Bornauw, A. Rossing-Lelesiit and M. Vuskovic. In double chance terms, "1899 Hoffenheim or draw" stands at 79%, "Hamburger SV or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : 1899 Hoffenheim are favourites for this 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV, with a 54% win probability from our model. In the table, 1899 Hoffenheim (14th, 3 pts) host Hamburger SV (16th, 3 pts). One to watch: Hamburger SV will be without S. Bornauw and A. Rossing-Lelesiit.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as 1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Hamburger SV | 12.5% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 Hamburger SV | 11.6% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Hamburger SV | 10.3% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 Hamburger SV | 9.6% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 Hamburger SV | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.65 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.93 for Hamburger SV, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 49%. 1899 Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Hamburger SV in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim expected goals | 1.65 |
| Hamburger SV expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 40% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
1899 Hoffenheim
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | OFI · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
Hamburger SV
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Verl · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 14 | 3 | 4 |
| Hamburger SV | 16 | 3 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Hamburger SV 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4-1 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| Apr 14, 2018 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| Nov 26, 2017 | Hamburger SV 3-0 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| Apr 8, 2017 | Hamburger SV 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
1899 Hoffenheim
- Bernardo (out)
Hamburger SV
- S. Bornauw (out)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit (out)
- M. Vuskovic (out)
Most regular starters
1899 Hoffenheim
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Avdullahu5/5
- O. Baumann5/5
- O. Kabak5/5
- V. Coufal5/5
- W. Burger5/5
- A. Daghim4/5
- A. Hajdari4/5
- M. Rots4/5
- A. Hlozek3/5
- P. Wimmer3/5
- T. Lemperle3/5
Hamburger SV
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Capaldo5/5
- N. Remberg5/5
- A. Gronbaek4/5
- J. Torunarigha4/5
- A. S. Lokonga3/5
- D. Heuer Fernandes3/5
- M. Adeline3/5
- P. Daka3/5
- S. Bornauw3/5
- Z. El Ouahdi3/5
- B. Jatta2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenOct 9, 2026
- FC Augsburg – Bayern MünchenOct 10, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 – VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer LeverkusenOct 10, 2026
- Union Berlin – SV ElversbergOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction?
Our AI gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Hamburger SV 21%. 1899 Hoffenheim are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
1-0 (12.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.6%) and 0-0 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
The probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV score is 49%. 1899 Hoffenheim have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hamburger SV 19%.
How many goals should we expect in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
The model expects 2.58 goals (1.65 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0.93 for Hamburger SV). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5. Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV in?
1899 Hoffenheim: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 12 conceded). Hamburger SV: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hamburger SV 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim (Apr 25, 2026).
How is the 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.65 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0.93 for Hamburger SV) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All 1899 Hoffenheim predictions
- All Hamburger SV predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology