Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern München. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bayern München (47%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The exact score 2-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (6.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (83%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
Match analysis
FC Augsburg and Bayern München met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bayern München 47%. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (6.7%), followed by 1-2 (6.1%) and 2-3 (5.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Augsburg have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 2. Bayern München therefore arrive in far better shape than FC Augsburg. On average FC Augsburg score 2.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Bayern München score 3.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, FC Augsburg sit 5th with 7 points from 4 games, Bayern München 2nd with 10 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, FC Augsburg have averaged 2.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.38 for Bayern München.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for FC Augsburg, 4 for Bayern München and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg (Jan 24, 2026). FC Augsburg out or doubtful: N. Banks, T. Breithaupt, S. Mounie and S. Suso. Bayern München: T. Buchmann and J. Musiala. In double chance terms, "FC Augsburg or draw" stands at 53%, "Bayern München or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Bayern München are tipped by our AI model in this FC Augsburg v Bayern München (47%). On recent form, FC Augsburg have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Bayern München are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Augsburg – Bayern München. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (6.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern München | 6.7% |
| FC Augsburg 1-2 Bayern München | 6.1% |
| FC Augsburg 2-3 Bayern München | 5.8% |
| FC Augsburg 1-3 Bayern München | 5.2% |
| FC Augsburg 2-1 Bayern München | 5.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.22 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.60 for Bayern München, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 83%. Goals look likely in this one. FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Bayern München in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg expected goals | 2.22 |
| Bayern München expected goals | 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 83% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 7% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Augsburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Hertha BSC · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | VfL Osnabrück · DFB-Pokal | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Bayern München | 2 | 10 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | FC Augsburg 2-3 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| Apr 4, 2025 | FC Augsburg 1-3 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Bayern München 3-0 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | FC Augsburg 2-3 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
FC Augsburg
- N. Banks (out)
- T. Breithaupt (out)
- S. Mounie (out)
- S. Suso (out)
Bayern München
- T. Buchmann (out)
- J. Musiala (out)
Most regular starters
FC Augsburg
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Brackelmann4/4
- C. Matsima4/4
- F. Dahmen4/4
- F. Rieder4/4
- H. Behrens4/4
- H. Massengo4/4
- M. Gregoritsch4/4
- M. Wolf4/4
- N. Banks4/4
- R. Fellhauer4/4
- A. Ibrahimovic2/4
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Upamecano4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- J. Tah4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- A. Davies3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- M. Neuer3/5
- N. Brown3/5
- A. Pavlovic2/5
- A. Pavlović2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder BremenOct 9, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenOct 10, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SVOct 10, 2026
- Union Berlin 1-0 SV ElversbergOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig 6-0 Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia MönchengladbachOct 11, 2026
- SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Schalke 04Oct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Augsburg vs Bayern München prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bayern München 47%. Bayern München are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
2-2 (6.7%), followed by 1-2 (6.1%), 2-3 (5.8%), 1-3 (5.2%) and 2-1 (5.2%).
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
The probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayern München score is 83%. FC Augsburg have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayern München 11%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
The model expects 4.82 goals (2.22 for FC Augsburg, 2.60 for Bayern München). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5. Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in?
FC Augsburg: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 8 conceded). Bayern München: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for FC Augsburg, 4 for Bayern München and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg (Jan 24, 2026).
What was the FC Augsburg vs Bayern München result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern München. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bayern München (47%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The exact score 2-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (6.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (83%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
How is the FC Augsburg vs Bayern München prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.22 for FC Augsburg, 2.60 for Bayern München) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Augsburg predictions
- All Bayern München predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology