Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
FSV Mainz 05 take on Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), a Bundesliga, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz. The edge goes to Bayer Leverkusen (53%), ahead of the draw (21%) and a FSV Mainz 05 win (26%). The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.4%), ahead of 1-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (6.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 19 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average FSV Mainz 05 score 3.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 sit 6th with 7 points from 4 games, Bayer Leverkusen 5th with 7 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.31 for Bayer Leverkusen.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Feb 28, 2026). FSV Mainz 05 out or doubtful: D. Kohr, P. Nebel, Silas, S. Widmer and R. Zentner. Bayer Leverkusen: M. Culbreath, G. Doue, K. Eichhorn and N. Tella. In double chance terms, "FSV Mainz 05 or draw" stands at 47%, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Our model backs Bayer Leverkusen to edge FSV Mainz 05 (53% probability). In the table, FSV Mainz 05 (6th, 7 pts) host Bayer Leverkusen (5th, 7 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 67%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 9.4% |
| FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen | 9.1% |
| FSV Mainz 05 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.8% |
| FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.6% |
| FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.44 goals in total (1.38 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.06 for Bayer Leverkusen): over 2.5 goals has a 67% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Bayer Leverkusen in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 expected goals | 1.38 |
| Bayer Leverkusen expected goals | 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 13% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow · DFB-Pokal | 9-0 | W |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Celje · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| May 17, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohr (out)
- P. Nebel (out)
- Silas (out)
- S. Widmer (out)
- R. Zentner (out)
Bayer Leverkusen
- M. Culbreath (out)
- G. Doue (out)
- K. Eichhorn (out)
- N. Tella (out)
Most regular starters
FSV Mainz 05
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Caci5/5
- F. Gruber5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- Lee Jae-Sung5/5
- N. Amiri5/5
- P. Mwene5/5
- P. Tietz5/5
- S. Becker5/5
- K. Potulski3/5
- R. Zentner3/5
- S. Posch3/5
Bayer Leverkusen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tapsoba5/5
- M. Flekken5/5
- A. Garcia4/5
- F. Medina4/5
- I. Maza4/5
- P. Schick4/5
- A. Moreira3/5
- E. Fernandez3/5
- J. Quansah3/5
- M. Diaby3/5
- M. Gutierrez3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenOct 9, 2026
- FC Augsburg – Bayern MünchenOct 10, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 – VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SVOct 10, 2026
- Union Berlin – SV ElversbergOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction?
Our AI gives FSV Mainz 05 a 26% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%. Bayer Leverkusen are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1-2 (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (9.1%), 0-2 (6.8%), 0-1 (6.6%) and 2-2 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen score is 65%. FSV Mainz 05 have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayer Leverkusen 25%.
How many goals should we expect in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model expects 3.44 goals (1.38 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.06 for Bayer Leverkusen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5. Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FSV Mainz 05: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (19 scored, 6 conceded). Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Feb 28, 2026).
How is the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.06 for Bayer Leverkusen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FSV Mainz 05 predictions
- All Bayer Leverkusen predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology