Bundesliga· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Borussia Dortmund (90%), while a draw was rated at only 7%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.
Match analysis
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen was played on Friday, October 9, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 5). Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Before kick-off, our model gave Borussia Dortmund a 90% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Werder Bremen 3%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (12.9%), ahead of 2-0 (11.3%) and 4-0 (11.0%).
Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 15 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Werder Bremen have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Recent momentum is clearly with Borussia Dortmund. On average Borussia Dortmund score 3.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Werder Bremen score 1.60 and concede 3.00. In the table, Borussia Dortmund sit 1st with 12 points from 4 games, Werder Bremen 8th with 7 points from 4. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.74 for Werder Bremen.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Werder Bremen and 2 draws. The most recent ended Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (May 16, 2026). Borussia Dortmund out or doubtful: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, C. Chukwuemeka (doubtful), K. Karetsas (doubtful), J. Lerma (doubtful), F. Mane (doubtful) and J. Ryerson (doubtful). Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Lynen, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage and K. Topp. In double chance terms, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" stands at 97%, "Werder Bremen or draw" at 10% and "no draw" at 93%.
In short : Borussia Dortmund are favourites for this Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen, with a 90% win probability from our model. In the table, Borussia Dortmund (1st, 12 pts) host Werder Bremen (8th, 7 pts). One to watch: Werder Bremen will be without F. Agu and S. Alvero.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Werder Bremen | 12.9% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder Bremen | 11.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Werder Bremen | 11.0% |
| Borussia Dortmund 5-0 Werder Bremen | 7.5% |
| Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Werder Bremen | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.94 goals in total (3.41 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.53 for Werder Bremen): over 2.5 goals has a 75% probability and both teams to score 40%. Everything points to an open game. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 59% of scenarios, Werder Bremen in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 3.41 |
| Werder Bremen expected goals | 0.53 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 59% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Villarreal · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | HEBC · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
Werder Bremen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Twente · Club Friendlies | 0-7 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 12 | 4 |
| Werder Bremen | 8 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Werder Bremen 0-0 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Can (out)
- G. Konstantelias (out)
- C. Chukwuemeka (doubtful)
- K. Karetsas (doubtful)
- J. Lerma (doubtful)
- F. Mane (doubtful)
- J. Ryerson (doubtful)
Werder Bremen
- F. Agu (out)
- S. Alvero (out)
- S. Lynen (out)
- S. Musah (out)
- M. N'Diaye (out)
- J. Njinmah (out)
- J. Stage (out)
- K. Topp (out)
Most regular starters
Borussia Dortmund
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Svensson5/5
- J. Ryerson5/5
- W. Anton5/5
- F. Nmecha4/5
- G. Kobel4/5
- J. Veerman4/5
- S. Guirassy4/5
- J. Gadou3/5
- M. Beier3/5
- E. Nwaneri2/5
- F. Mane2/5
Werder Bremen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Pieper5/5
- Chuki5/5
- L. Reis5/5
- N. Fullkrug5/5
- Arthur4/5
- K. Hein4/5
- M. Friedl4/5
- M. Grull4/5
- O. Deman4/5
- Y. Regeer4/5
- E. Dinkci3/5
Other matches in this competition
- FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MünchenOct 10, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenOct 10, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SVOct 10, 2026
- Union Berlin 1-0 SV ElversbergOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig 6-0 Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia MönchengladbachOct 11, 2026
- SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Schalke 04Oct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Borussia Dortmund a 90% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Werder Bremen 3%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
3-0 (12.9%), followed by 2-0 (11.3%), 4-0 (11.0%), 5-0 (7.5%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen score is 40%. Borussia Dortmund have a 59% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Werder Bremen 3%.
How many goals should we expect in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model expects 3.94 goals (3.41 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.53 for Werder Bremen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 56%.
When and where is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 4 conceded). Werder Bremen: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 15 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Werder Bremen and 2 draws. The most recent ended Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (May 16, 2026).
What was the Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Borussia Dortmund (90%), while a draw was rated at only 7%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.
How is the Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.41 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.53 for Werder Bremen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- All Werder Bremen predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology