Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 5: SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time). Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg. Our model makes SC Freiburg clear favourites: a 90% chance of winning, against 8% for the draw and 2% for FC Schalke 04. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (18.3%), followed by 3-0 (17.4%) and 1-0 (12.8%).
SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 16 and conceding 5. FC Schalke 04 are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average SC Freiburg score 3.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; FC Schalke 04 score 1.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, SC Freiburg sit 3rd with 10 points from 4 games, FC Schalke 04 11th with 5 points from 4. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, SC Freiburg have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.21 for FC Schalke 04.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws. The most recent ended SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 (Apr 23, 2023). In double chance terms, "SC Freiburg or draw" stands at 98%, "FC Schalke 04 or draw" at 10% and "no draw" at 92%.
In short : SC Freiburg are tipped by our AI model in this SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 (90%). On recent form, SC Freiburg are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while FC Schalke 04 have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as SC Freiburg – FC Schalke 04. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04 | 18.3% |
| SC Freiburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04 | 17.4% |
| SC Freiburg 1-0 FC Schalke 04 | 12.8% |
| SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 | 12.4% |
| SC Freiburg 5-0 FC Schalke 04 | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.85 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.25 for FC Schalke 04, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 60% and "both teams to score" at 21%. Goals look likely in this one. SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 78% of scenarios, FC Schalke 04 in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg expected goals | 2.85 |
| FC Schalke 04 expected goals | 0.25 |
| Both teams to score | 21% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 78% |
| FC Schalke 04 clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Luzern · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
FC Schalke 04
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Austria Lustenau · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen · Club Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 3 | 10 | 4 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 11 | 5 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 30, 2022 | FC Schalke 04 0-2 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Apr 17, 2021 | SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Dec 16, 2020 | FC Schalke 04 0-2 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Jun 27, 2020 | SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
SC Freiburg
No absences reported.
FC Schalke 04
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
SC Freiburg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Beste5/5
- M. Ginter5/5
- D. Scherhant4/5
- I. Matanovic4/5
- J. Makengo4/5
- M. Backhaus4/5
- M. Eggestein4/5
- P. Lienhart4/5
- Y. Engelhardt4/5
- Y. Suzuki4/5
- P. Treu3/5
FC Schalke 04
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Kurucay4/5
- J. Dina Ebimbe4/5
- L. Karius4/5
- R. Gosens4/5
- A. Aouchiche3/5
- K. Karaman3/5
- M. Sylla3/5
- N. Katic3/5
- S. El-Faouzi3/5
- S. Tanaka3/5
- T. Becker3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenOct 9, 2026
- FC Augsburg – Bayern MünchenOct 10, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 – VfB StuttgartOct 10, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer LeverkusenOct 10, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SVOct 10, 2026
- Union Berlin – SV ElversbergOct 10, 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtOct 10, 2026
- 1. FC Köln – Borussia MönchengladbachOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 prediction?
Our AI gives SC Freiburg a 90% chance of winning, the draw 8% and FC Schalke 04 2%. SC Freiburg are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?
2-0 (18.3%), followed by 3-0 (17.4%), 1-0 (12.8%), 4-0 (12.4%) and 5-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?
The probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 score is 21%. SC Freiburg have a 78% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Schalke 04 6%.
How many goals should we expect in SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?
The model expects 3.10 goals (2.85 for SC Freiburg, 0.25 for FC Schalke 04). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 5. Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 in?
SC Freiburg: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 5 conceded). FC Schalke 04: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws. The most recent ended SC Freiburg 4-0 FC Schalke 04 (Apr 23, 2023).
How is the SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.85 for SC Freiburg, 0.25 for FC Schalke 04) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All SC Freiburg predictions
- All FC Schalke 04 predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology