Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (82%), while a draw was rated at only 12%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): missed.
Match analysis
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 3). Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. Before kick-off, our model gave 1. FC Köln a 82% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Werder Bremen 6%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 3-0 (11.7%) and 1-0 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, 1. FC Köln have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Werder Bremen have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with 1. FC Köln. On average 1. FC Köln score 2.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Werder Bremen score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, 1. FC Köln sit 12th with 3 points from 2 games, Werder Bremen 11th with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, 1. FC Köln have averaged 2.40 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.74 for Werder Bremen.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for 1. FC Köln, 0 for Werder Bremen and 1 draw. The most recent ended 1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen (Apr 12, 2026). 1. FC Köln out or doubtful: T. Hubers, S. El Mala, S. Sebulonsen and L. Waldschmidt. Werder Bremen: J. Njinmah, J. Stage, K. Topp and F. Agu. In double chance terms, "1. FC Köln or draw" stands at 94%, "Werder Bremen or draw" at 18% and "no draw" at 88%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as 1. FC Köln – Werder Bremen. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln 2-0 Werder Bremen | 12.7% |
| 1. FC Köln 3-0 Werder Bremen | 11.7% |
| 1. FC Köln 1-0 Werder Bremen | 9.2% |
| 1. FC Köln 2-1 Werder Bremen | 8.1% |
| 1. FC Köln 4-0 Werder Bremen | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.41 goals in total (2.77 for 1. FC Köln, 0.64 for Werder Bremen): over 2.5 goals has a 66% probability and both teams to score 44%. Everything points to an open game. 1. FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Werder Bremen in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln expected goals | 2.77 |
| Werder Bremen expected goals | 0.64 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 53% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Würzburger Kickers · DFB-Pokal | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hertha BSC · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Werder Bremen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lüneburger SK Hansa · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Auxerre · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 12 | 3 | 2 |
| Werder Bremen | 11 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | 1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
1. FC Köln
- T. Hubers (out)
- S. El Mala (out)
- S. Sebulonsen (out)
- L. Waldschmidt (out)
Werder Bremen
- J. Njinmah (out)
- J. Stage (out)
- K. Topp (out)
- F. Agu (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Sep 11, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartSep 12, 2026
- SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachSep 12, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSep 12, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Sep 12, 2026
- FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenSep 12, 2026
- RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVSep 13, 2026
- SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern MünchenSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave 1. FC Köln a 82% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Werder Bremen 6%. 1. FC Köln are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 3-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.1%) and 4-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The probability that both 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen score is 44%. 1. FC Köln have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Werder Bremen 6%.
How many goals should we expect in 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The model expects 3.41 goals (2.77 for 1. FC Köln, 0.64 for Werder Bremen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 44%.
When and where is 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 3. Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen in?
1. FC Köln: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded). Werder Bremen: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for 1. FC Köln, 0 for Werder Bremen and 1 draw. The most recent ended 1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen (Apr 12, 2026).
What was the 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (82%), while a draw was rated at only 12%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): missed.
How is the 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.77 for 1. FC Köln, 0.64 for Werder Bremen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All 1. FC Köln predictions
- All Werder Bremen predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- 1. FC Köln cards
- Werder Bremen cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology