Bundesliga· Kick-off : Friday, September 11, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Union Berlin (41%), while victory for FC Schalke 04 was rated at only 32%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
Match analysis
Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 was played on Friday, September 11, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 3). Venue: An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Before kick-off, our model gave Union Berlin a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC Schalke 04 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.1%), ahead of 1-1 (13.1%) and 0-0 (10.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Union Berlin have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 15. FC Schalke 04 have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 11. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Union Berlin score 2.40 and concede 3.00 goals per game; FC Schalke 04 score 1.00 and concede 2.20. In the table, Union Berlin sit 15th with 1 points from 2 games, FC Schalke 04 14th with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Union Berlin have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.16 for FC Schalke 04.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union Berlin, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 4 draws. Union Berlin out or doubtful: M. Friedrich, A. Ilic, A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki and K. Imeri. FC Schalke 04: T. Kalas and R. Schallenberg. In double chance terms, "Union Berlin or draw" stands at 68%, "FC Schalke 04 or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union Berlin – FC Schalke 04. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin 1-0 FC Schalke 04 | 13.1% |
| Union Berlin 1-1 FC Schalke 04 | 13.1% |
| Union Berlin 0-0 FC Schalke 04 | 10.2% |
| Union Berlin 0-1 FC Schalke 04 | 10.2% |
| Union Berlin 2-0 FC Schalke 04 | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.28 goals in total (1.28 for Union Berlin, 1.00 for FC Schalke 04): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 46%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, FC Schalke 04 in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin expected goals | 1.28 |
| FC Schalke 04 expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 37% |
| FC Schalke 04 clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Union Berlin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig · DFB-Pokal | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ipswich · Club Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Aris · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
FC Schalke 04
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Hallescher FC · DFB-Pokal | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Madrid · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atalanta · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 15 | 1 | 2 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 14 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union Berlin, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 4 draws.
Out and doubtful
Union Berlin
- M. Friedrich (out)
- A. Ilic (out)
- A. Markgraf (out)
- S. Nsoki (out)
- K. Imeri (out)
FC Schalke 04
- T. Kalas (out)
- R. Schallenberg (out)
Other matches in this competition
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartSep 12, 2026
- SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachSep 12, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSep 12, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Sep 12, 2026
- FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenSep 12, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenSep 12, 2026
- RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVSep 13, 2026
- SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern MünchenSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Union Berlin a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC Schalke 04 32%. Union Berlin are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
1-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.2%) and 2-0 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
The probability that both Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 score is 46%. Union Berlin have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Schalke 04 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
The model expects 2.28 goals (1.28 for Union Berlin, 1.00 for FC Schalke 04). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 played?
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 3. Venue: An der Alten Försterei, Berlin.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 in?
Union Berlin: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 15 conceded). FC Schalke 04: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union Berlin, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 4 draws.
What was the Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Union Berlin (41%), while victory for FC Schalke 04 was rated at only 32%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
How is the Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.28 for Union Berlin, 1.00 for FC Schalke 04) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union Berlin predictions
- All FC Schalke 04 predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Union Berlin cards
- FC Schalke 04 cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology