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BundesligaBundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: 3-0 result and AI prediction review

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund3 – 0SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Borussia Dortmund at 95%. The exact score 3-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.

Match analysis

Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 met on Saturday, September 12, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Before kick-off, our model gave Borussia Dortmund a 95% chance of winning, the draw 4% and SC Paderborn 07 1%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (13.5%), followed by 4-0 (13.5%) and 5-0 (10.8%).

Over their last 5 matches, Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, SC Paderborn 07 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Borussia Dortmund therefore arrive in far better shape than SC Paderborn 07. On average Borussia Dortmund score 2.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Borussia Dortmund sit 3rd with 6 points from 2 games, SC Paderborn 07 13th with 1 points from 2. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.13 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.75 for SC Paderborn 07.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 draws. Borussia Dortmund out or doubtful: R. Bensebaini, E. Can, M. Kaba, G. Konstantelias and J. Lerma. SC Paderborn 07: T. Gayret, N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel, S. Klaas and S. Michel. In double chance terms, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" stands at 99%, "SC Paderborn 07 or draw" at 5% and "no draw" at 96%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

95%
Borussia Dortmund (Win)
4%
Draw
1%
SC Paderborn 07 (Win)

Double chance

99%
Borussia Dortmund or draw
5%
SC Paderborn 07 or draw
96%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Borussia Dortmund – SC Paderborn 07. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 0713.5%
Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Paderborn 0713.5%
Borussia Dortmund 5-0 SC Paderborn 0710.8%
Borussia Dortmund 2-0 SC Paderborn 0710.1%
Borussia Dortmund 6-0 SC Paderborn 077.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 4.00 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.37 for SC Paderborn 07, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 81% and "both teams to score" at 30%. Goals look likely in this one. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 69% of scenarios, SC Paderborn 07 in 2%.

Probability
Borussia Dortmund expected goals4.00
SC Paderborn 07 expected goals0.37
Both teams to score30%
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals81%
Over 3.5 goals64%
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet69%
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet2%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Borussia Dortmund

DateOpponentScore
Sep 8, 2026Villarreal · UEFA Champions League3-2W
Sep 5, 20261899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga3-2W
Sep 1, 2026HEBC · DFB-Pokal5-0W
Aug 29, 2026Hamburger SV · Bundesliga2-0W
Aug 22, 2026Bayern München · German Super Cup1-2L

SC Paderborn 07

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0-1L
Aug 29, 2026FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0-0D
Aug 23, 2026Phönix Lübeck · DFB-Pokal4-2W
Aug 8, 2026Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 1, 2026VfL Osnabrück · Club Friendlies2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Borussia Dortmund362
SC Paderborn 071312

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 draws.

Out and doubtful

Borussia Dortmund

  • R. Bensebaini (out)
  • E. Can (out)
  • M. Kaba (out)
  • G. Konstantelias (out)
  • J. Lerma (out)

SC Paderborn 07

  • T. Gayret (out)
  • N. Awortwie-Grant (out)
  • L. Eickel (out)
  • S. Klaas (out)
  • S. Michel (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Borussia Dortmund a 95% chance of winning, the draw 4% and SC Paderborn 07 1%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

3-0 (13.5%), followed by 4-0 (13.5%), 5-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.1%) and 6-0 (7.2%).

Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

The probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 score is 30%. Borussia Dortmund have a 69% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SC Paderborn 07 2%.

How many goals should we expect in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

The model expects 4.37 goals (4.00 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.37 for SC Paderborn 07). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 64%.

When and where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 played?

Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 3. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.

What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 in?

Borussia Dortmund: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 6 conceded). SC Paderborn 07: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 draws.

What was the Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Borussia Dortmund at 95%. The exact score 3-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.

How is the Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.37 for SC Paderborn 07) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained