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BundesligaBundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 051 – 3Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FSV Mainz 05 (50%), while victory for Eintracht Frankfurt was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.

Match analysis

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 3). Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz. Before kick-off, our model gave FSV Mainz 05 a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Eintracht Frankfurt 26%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.0%), ahead of 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.5%).

FSV Mainz 05 are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 20 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 20 and conceding 15. Recent momentum is clearly with FSV Mainz 05. On average FSV Mainz 05 score 4.00 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Eintracht Frankfurt score 4.00 and concede 3.00. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 sit 5th with 4 points from 2 games, Eintracht Frankfurt 14th with 1 points from 2. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.85 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt (Mar 22, 2026). FSV Mainz 05 out or doubtful: D. Kohr, E. Martel, P. Nebel, Silas and S. Widmer. Eintracht Frankfurt: N. Collins, J. Ngankam, F. Chaibi, A. Knauff and M. Pimpong. In double chance terms, "FSV Mainz 05 or draw" stands at 74%, "Eintracht Frankfurt or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

50%
FSV Mainz 05 (Win)
24%
Draw
26%
Eintracht Frankfurt (Win)

Double chance

74%
FSV Mainz 05 or draw
51%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FSV Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FSV Mainz 05 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt10.0%
FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt9.7%
FSV Mainz 05 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt8.5%
FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt8.2%
FSV Mainz 05 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt7.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.32 goals in total (2.35 for FSV Mainz 05, 0.97 for Eintracht Frankfurt): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 56%. Everything points to an open game. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Eintracht Frankfurt in 10%.

Probability
FSV Mainz 05 expected goals2.35
Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals0.97
Both teams to score56%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals42%
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet38%
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet10%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

FSV Mainz 05

DateOpponentScore
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV · Bundesliga5-0W
Aug 29, 2026SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga0-0D
Aug 23, 2026Krieschow · DFB-Pokal9-0W
Aug 15, 2026Bournemouth · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 8, 2026Paris FC · Club Friendlies4-0W

Eintracht Frankfurt

DateOpponentScore
Sep 6, 2026FC Augsburg · Bundesliga1-4L
Aug 29, 2026Union Berlin · Bundesliga3-3D
Aug 21, 2026SC St. Tönis · DFB-Pokal11-0W
Aug 15, 2026Brentford · Club Friendlies0-7L
Aug 12, 2026FSV Frankfurt · Club Friendlies5-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
FSV Mainz 05542
Eintracht Frankfurt1412

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 22, 2026FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
Nov 9, 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Out and doubtful

FSV Mainz 05

  • D. Kohr (out)
  • E. Martel (out)
  • P. Nebel (out)
  • Silas (out)
  • S. Widmer (out)

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • N. Collins (out)
  • J. Ngankam (out)
  • F. Chaibi (out)
  • A. Knauff (out)
  • M. Pimpong (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave FSV Mainz 05 a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Eintracht Frankfurt 26%. FSV Mainz 05 are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

2-0 (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.2%) and 3-0 (7.8%).

Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

The probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt score is 56%. FSV Mainz 05 have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Eintracht Frankfurt 10%.

How many goals should we expect in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

The model expects 3.32 goals (2.35 for FSV Mainz 05, 0.97 for Eintracht Frankfurt). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 42%.

When and where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt played?

Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 3. Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz.

What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?

FSV Mainz 05: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (20 scored, 1 conceded). Eintracht Frankfurt: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (20 scored, 15 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt (Mar 22, 2026).

What was the FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FSV Mainz 05 (50%), while victory for Eintracht Frankfurt was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.

How is the FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.35 for FSV Mainz 05, 0.97 for Eintracht Frankfurt) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained