Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: 5-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for RB Leipzig was the model's favourite outcome (72%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (84%): correct.
Match analysis
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV was played on Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 3). Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. Before kick-off, our model gave RB Leipzig a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Hamburger SV 11%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (10.8%), ahead of 4-0 (10.8%) and 5-0 (8.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average RB Leipzig score 2.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Hamburger SV score 1.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, RB Leipzig sit 12th with 3 points from 2 games, Hamburger SV 17th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, RB Leipzig have averaged 2.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.91 for Hamburger SV.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 0 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig (Mar 1, 2026). RB Leipzig out or doubtful: C. Baumgartner, A. Kone, R. Reitz and L. Zingerle. Hamburger SV: K. Amoako, S. Bornauw and A. Rossing-Lelesiit. In double chance terms, "RB Leipzig or draw" stands at 89%, "Hamburger SV or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 83%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as RB Leipzig – Hamburger SV. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig 3-0 Hamburger SV | 10.8% |
| RB Leipzig 4-0 Hamburger SV | 10.8% |
| RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV | 8.7% |
| RB Leipzig 2-0 Hamburger SV | 8.1% |
| RB Leipzig 3-1 Hamburger SV | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.59 goals in total (4.00 for RB Leipzig, 0.59 for Hamburger SV): over 2.5 goals has a 84% probability and both teams to score 44%. Everything points to an open game. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 55% of scenarios, Hamburger SV in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 4.00 |
| Hamburger SV expected goals | 0.59 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 67% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 55% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eintracht Trier · DFB-Pokal | 6-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayern München · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
Hamburger SV
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Verl · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Toulouse · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lille · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 12 | 3 | 2 |
| Hamburger SV | 17 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- A. Kone (out)
- R. Reitz (out)
- L. Zingerle (out)
Hamburger SV
- K. Amoako (out)
- S. Bornauw (out)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Sep 11, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartSep 12, 2026
- SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachSep 12, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSep 12, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Sep 12, 2026
- FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenSep 12, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenSep 12, 2026
- SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern MünchenSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave RB Leipzig a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Hamburger SV 11%. RB Leipzig are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-0.
What is the most likely correct score for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
3-0 (10.8%), followed by 4-0 (10.8%), 5-0 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.1%) and 3-1 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
The probability that both RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV score is 44%. RB Leipzig have a 55% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hamburger SV 2%.
How many goals should we expect in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
The model expects 4.59 goals (4.00 for RB Leipzig, 0.59 for Hamburger SV). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 67%.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 3. Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
What form are RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV in?
RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 10 conceded). Hamburger SV: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 0 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig (Mar 1, 2026).
What was the RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for RB Leipzig was the model's favourite outcome (72%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (84%): correct.
How is the RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for RB Leipzig, 0.59 for Hamburger SV) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- All Hamburger SV predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- RB Leipzig cards
- Hamburger SV cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology