Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FC Augsburg (71%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (4.9%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (80%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): correct.
Match analysis
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen met on Saturday, September 12, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Augsburg a 71% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bayer Leverkusen 15%. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (6.6%), followed by 4-1 (5.8%) and 3-2 (5.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Augsburg have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average FC Augsburg score 2.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, FC Augsburg sit 1st with 6 points from 2 games, Bayer Leverkusen 8th with 3 points from 2. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, FC Augsburg have averaged 2.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg (Apr 18, 2026). FC Augsburg out or doubtful: T. Breithaupt, S. Mounie, A. Kade, F. Sakar and S. Suso. Bayer Leverkusen: M. Culbreath, N. Tella, K. Eichhorn and M. Terrier. In double chance terms, "FC Augsburg or draw" stands at 85%, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 86%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.6% |
| FC Augsburg 4-1 Bayer Leverkusen | 5.8% |
| FC Augsburg 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 5.7% |
| FC Augsburg 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen | 5.7% |
| FC Augsburg 4-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 5.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.51 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.72 for Bayer Leverkusen, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 89% and "both teams to score" at 80%. Goals look likely in this one. FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Bayer Leverkusen in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg expected goals | 3.51 |
| Bayer Leverkusen expected goals | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 77% |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 18% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
FC Augsburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Energie Cottbus · DFB-Pokal | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leeds · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sassuolo · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Wehen · DFB-Pokal | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newcastle · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
FC Augsburg
- T. Breithaupt (out)
- S. Mounie (out)
- A. Kade (out)
- F. Sakar (out)
- S. Suso (out)
Bayer Leverkusen
- M. Culbreath (out)
- N. Tella (out)
- K. Eichhorn (out)
- M. Terrier (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Sep 11, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartSep 12, 2026
- SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachSep 12, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSep 12, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Sep 12, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenSep 12, 2026
- RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVSep 13, 2026
- SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern MünchenSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FC Augsburg a 71% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bayer Leverkusen 15%. FC Augsburg are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
3-1 (6.6%), followed by 4-1 (5.8%), 3-2 (5.7%), 2-1 (5.7%) and 4-2 (5.0%).
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen score is 80%. FC Augsburg have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayer Leverkusen 3%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model expects 5.23 goals (3.51 for FC Augsburg, 1.72 for Bayer Leverkusen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 89%, over 3.5 goals 77%.
When and where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 3. Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 7 conceded). Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg (Apr 18, 2026).
What was the FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FC Augsburg (71%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (4.9%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (80%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): correct.
How is the FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.51 for FC Augsburg, 1.72 for Bayer Leverkusen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Augsburg predictions
- All Bayer Leverkusen predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- FC Augsburg cards
- Bayer Leverkusen cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology