Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for RB Leipzig (53%), while victory for Bayer Leverkusen was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (83%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (87%): missed.
Match analysis
Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen. Before kick-off, our model gave Bayer Leverkusen a 29% chance of winning, the draw 18% and RB Leipzig 53%. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (6.3%), followed by 2-3 (6.0%) and 1-2 (5.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bayer Leverkusen score 2.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; RB Leipzig score 3.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Bayer Leverkusen sit 10th with 4 points from 3 games, RB Leipzig 7th with 6 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 2.31 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.63 for RB Leipzig.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig (May 2, 2026). Bayer Leverkusen out or doubtful: V. Boniface, M. Culbreath, G. Doue, K. Eichhorn and J. Hofmann. RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and R. Reitz. In double chance terms, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" stands at 47%, "RB Leipzig or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 82%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (6.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 28% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 RB Leipzig | 6.3% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig | 6.0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 RB Leipzig | 5.9% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 RB Leipzig | 5.6% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 RB Leipzig | 4.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.13 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.85 for RB Leipzig, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 87% and "both teams to score" at 83%. Goals look likely in this one. Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 6% of scenarios, RB Leipzig in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen expected goals | 2.13 |
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 83% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 6% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Celje · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Wehen · DFB-Pokal | 4-0 | W |
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eintracht Trier · DFB-Pokal | 6-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 10 | 4 | 3 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Bayer Leverkusen
- V. Boniface (out)
- M. Culbreath (out)
- G. Doue (out)
- K. Eichhorn (out)
- J. Hofmann (out)
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- R. Reitz (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 7-0 Union BerlinSep 18, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgSep 19, 2026
- Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnSep 19, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgSep 19, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Sep 19, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundSep 19, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergSep 20, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 HoffenheimSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bayer Leverkusen a 29% chance of winning, the draw 18% and RB Leipzig 53%. RB Leipzig are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
2-2 (6.3%), followed by 2-3 (6.0%), 1-2 (5.9%), 1-3 (5.6%) and 3-2 (4.5%).
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
The probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig score is 83%. Bayer Leverkusen have a 6% chance of keeping a clean sheet, RB Leipzig 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 4.98 goals (2.13 for Bayer Leverkusen, 2.85 for RB Leipzig). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 87%, over 3.5 goals 73%.
When and where is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 4. Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig in?
Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 5 conceded). RB Leipzig: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig (May 2, 2026).
What was the Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for RB Leipzig (53%), while victory for Bayer Leverkusen was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (83%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (87%): missed.
How is the Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.13 for Bayer Leverkusen, 2.85 for RB Leipzig) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bayer Leverkusen predictions
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology