Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Borussia Dortmund at 70%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): missed.
Match analysis
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart. Before kick-off, our model gave VfB Stuttgart a 15% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Borussia Dortmund 70%. On the correct score, 1-3 comes out on top (7.6%), followed by 1-2 (7.3%) and 1-4 (5.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 4. Borussia Dortmund therefore arrive in far better shape than VfB Stuttgart. On average VfB Stuttgart score 2.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Borussia Dortmund score 3.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, VfB Stuttgart sit 14th with 3 points from 3 games, Borussia Dortmund 3rd with 9 points from 3. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, VfB Stuttgart have averaged 2.13 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.13 for Borussia Dortmund.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draw. The most recent ended VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (Apr 4, 2026). VfB Stuttgart out or doubtful: L. Assignon, J. Diehl, L. Jaquez, D. Seimen and T. Tomas. Borussia Dortmund: M. Kaba, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, F. Mane and E. Can. In double chance terms, "VfB Stuttgart or draw" stands at 30%, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 85%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 1-3 Borussia Dortmund | 7.6% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia Dortmund | 7.3% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1-4 Borussia Dortmund | 5.9% |
| VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Dortmund | 5.5% |
| VfB Stuttgart 2-2 Borussia Dortmund | 5.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.46 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 3.10 for Borussia Dortmund, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 73%. Goals look likely in this one. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Borussia Dortmund in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart expected goals | 1.46 |
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 67% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 5% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
VfB Stuttgart
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Viking · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 1-5 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hansa Rostock · DFB-Pokal | 4-0 | W |
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Villarreal · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | HEBC · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 14 | 3 | 3 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 3-3 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
VfB Stuttgart
- L. Assignon (out)
- J. Diehl (out)
- L. Jaquez (out)
- D. Seimen (out)
- T. Tomas (out)
Borussia Dortmund
- M. Kaba (out)
- G. Konstantelias (out)
- J. Lerma (out)
- F. Mane (out)
- E. Can (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 7-0 Union BerlinSep 18, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgSep 19, 2026
- Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnSep 19, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgSep 19, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Sep 19, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigSep 20, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergSep 20, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 HoffenheimSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave VfB Stuttgart a 15% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Borussia Dortmund 70%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
1-3 (7.6%), followed by 1-2 (7.3%), 1-4 (5.9%), 2-3 (5.5%) and 2-2 (5.4%).
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
The probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund score is 73%. VfB Stuttgart have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Borussia Dortmund 23%.
How many goals should we expect in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 4.56 goals (1.46 for VfB Stuttgart, 3.10 for Borussia Dortmund). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 67%.
When and where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 4. Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfB Stuttgart: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 9 conceded). Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draw. The most recent ended VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (Apr 4, 2026).
What was the VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Borussia Dortmund at 70%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): missed.
How is the VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.46 for VfB Stuttgart, 3.10 for Borussia Dortmund) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All VfB Stuttgart predictions
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology