Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 18:30 (UK time)
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1899 Hoffenheim (57%), while victory for SC Paderborn 07 was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
Match analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. Before kick-off, our model gave SC Paderborn 07 a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and 1899 Hoffenheim 57%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.8%), followed by 0-2 (12.3%) and 1-1 (11.5%).
SC Paderborn 07 have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average SC Paderborn 07 score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; 1899 Hoffenheim score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, SC Paderborn 07 sit 16th with 1 points from 3 games, 1899 Hoffenheim 13th with 3 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 have averaged 0.75 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.52 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2 draws. SC Paderborn 07 out or doubtful: N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel, T. Gayret and S. Michel. 1899 Hoffenheim: L. Engelns. In double chance terms, "SC Paderborn 07 or draw" stands at 43%, "1899 Hoffenheim or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as SC Paderborn 07 – 1899 Hoffenheim. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim | 15.8% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0-2 1899 Hoffenheim | 12.3% |
| SC Paderborn 07 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim | 11.5% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim | 10.1% |
| SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.73 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.56 for 1899 Hoffenheim, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 40% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, 1899 Hoffenheim in 48%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 expected goals | 0.73 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim expected goals | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 21% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 48% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
SC Paderborn 07
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phönix Lübeck · DFB-Pokal | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
1899 Hoffenheim
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | OFI · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Erzgebirge Aue · DFB-Pokal | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 16 | 1 | 3 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 13 | 3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2 draws.
Out and doubtful
SC Paderborn 07
- N. Awortwie-Grant (out)
- L. Eickel (out)
- T. Gayret (out)
- S. Michel (out)
1899 Hoffenheim
- L. Engelns (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 7-0 Union BerlinSep 18, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgSep 19, 2026
- Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnSep 19, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgSep 19, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Sep 19, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundSep 19, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigSep 20, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave SC Paderborn 07 a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and 1899 Hoffenheim 57%. 1899 Hoffenheim are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
0-1 (15.8%), followed by 0-2 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
The probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim score is 41%. SC Paderborn 07 have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, 1899 Hoffenheim 48%.
How many goals should we expect in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
The model expects 2.29 goals (0.73 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.56 for 1899 Hoffenheim). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 18:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 4. Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SC Paderborn 07: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). 1899 Hoffenheim: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2 draws.
What was the SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1899 Hoffenheim (57%), while victory for SC Paderborn 07 was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
How is the SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.73 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.56 for 1899 Hoffenheim) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All SC Paderborn 07 predictions
- All 1899 Hoffenheim predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology