Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05: 3-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FSV Mainz 05 was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
Match analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 was played on Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 4). Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach. Before kick-off, our model gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FSV Mainz 05 43%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.5%), ahead of 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with FSV Mainz 05. On average Borussia Mönchengladbach score 2.00 and concede 2.60 goals per game; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 17th with 0 points from 3 games, FSV Mainz 05 8th with 4 points from 3. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach have averaged 1.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.23 for FSV Mainz 05.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw. The most recent ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Apr 19, 2026). Borussia Mönchengladbach out or doubtful: T. Kleindienst, N. Kuhn, E. Leopold, Y. Konoplya and Z. Uno. FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, P. Nebel, Silas, S. Widmer and R. Zentner. In double chance terms, "Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw" stands at 57%, "FSV Mainz 05 or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Borussia Mönchengladbach – FSV Mainz 05. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 | 11.5% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 | 8.6% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 | 8.2% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 | 8.1% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.92 goals in total (1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.50 for FSV Mainz 05): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 59%. Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, FSV Mainz 05 in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach expected goals | 1.42 |
| FSV Mainz 05 expected goals | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet | 22% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Schott Mainz · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aston Villa · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow · DFB-Pokal | 9-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bournemouth · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 17 | 0 | 3 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Dec 5, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- T. Kleindienst (out)
- N. Kuhn (out)
- E. Leopold (out)
- Y. Konoplya (out)
- Z. Uno (out)
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohr (out)
- P. Nebel (out)
- Silas (out)
- S. Widmer (out)
- R. Zentner (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 7-0 Union BerlinSep 18, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgSep 19, 2026
- Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnSep 19, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgSep 19, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundSep 19, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigSep 20, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergSep 20, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 HoffenheimSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FSV Mainz 05 43%. FSV Mainz 05 are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
1-1 (11.5%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%), 0-1 (8.1%) and 1-0 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
The probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 score is 59%. Borussia Mönchengladbach have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FSV Mainz 05 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model expects 2.92 goals (1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.50 for FSV Mainz 05). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 4. Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 13 conceded). FSV Mainz 05: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw. The most recent ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FSV Mainz 05 was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
How is the Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.50 for FSV Mainz 05) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Borussia Mönchengladbach predictions
- All FSV Mainz 05 predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology