Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (39%), while victory for Hamburger SV was rated at only 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
Match analysis
Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg. Before kick-off, our model gave Hamburger SV a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and 1. FC Köln 39%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (10.0%), followed by 0-3 (9.8%) and 1-2 (8.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, 1. FC Köln have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 9. 1. FC Köln therefore arrive in far better shape than Hamburger SV. On average Hamburger SV score 1.00 and concede 2.60 goals per game; 1. FC Köln score 1.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Hamburger SV sit 18th with 0 points from 3 games, 1. FC Köln 12th with 4 points from 3. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Hamburger SV have averaged 1.01 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.40 for 1. FC Köln.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 1 draw. The most recent ended Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Köln (Mar 14, 2026). Hamburger SV out or doubtful: S. Bornauw, A. Rossing-Lelesiit and M. Vuskovic. 1. FC Köln: T. Hubers. In double chance terms, "Hamburger SV or draw" stands at 61%, "1. FC Köln or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Hamburger SV – 1. FC Köln. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV 0-2 1. FC Köln | 10.0% |
| Hamburger SV 0-3 1. FC Köln | 9.8% |
| Hamburger SV 1-2 1. FC Köln | 8.3% |
| Hamburger SV 1-3 1. FC Köln | 8.1% |
| Hamburger SV 0-4 1. FC Köln | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.83 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 2.93 for 1. FC Köln, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 73% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Goals look likely in this one. Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, 1. FC Köln in 44%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV expected goals | 0.83 |
| 1. FC Köln expected goals | 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 5% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 44% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Hamburger SV
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Verl · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Toulouse · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Würzburger Kickers · DFB-Pokal | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 18 | 0 | 3 |
| 1. FC Köln | 12 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1. FC Köln 4-1 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Hamburger SV
- S. Bornauw (out)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit (out)
- M. Vuskovic (out)
1. FC Köln
- T. Hubers (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 7-0 Union BerlinSep 18, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgSep 19, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgSep 19, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Sep 19, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundSep 19, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigSep 20, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergSep 20, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 HoffenheimSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Hamburger SV a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and 1. FC Köln 39%. 1. FC Köln are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
0-2 (10.0%), followed by 0-3 (9.8%), 1-2 (8.3%), 1-3 (8.1%) and 0-4 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
The probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln score is 53%. Hamburger SV have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, 1. FC Köln 44%.
How many goals should we expect in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
The model expects 3.76 goals (0.83 for Hamburger SV, 2.93 for 1. FC Köln). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 52%.
When and where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 4. Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln in?
Hamburger SV: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded). 1. FC Köln: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 1 draw. The most recent ended Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Köln (Mar 14, 2026).
What was the Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (39%), while victory for Hamburger SV was rated at only 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
How is the Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.83 for Hamburger SV, 2.93 for 1. FC Köln) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Hamburger SV predictions
- All 1. FC Köln predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology