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BundesligaBundesliga· Kick-off : Friday, September 18, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)

Bayern München vs Union Berlin: 7-0 result and AI prediction review

Bayern MünchenBayern München7 – 0Union BerlinUnion Berlin

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayern München at 93%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.

Match analysis

Bayern München and Union Berlin met on Friday, September 18, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Before kick-off, our model gave Bayern München a 93% chance of winning, the draw 5% and Union Berlin 2%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 4-0 (11.6%) and 5-0 (9.3%).

Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 16 and conceding 3. Union Berlin have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 16. Bayern München therefore arrive in far better shape than Union Berlin. On average Bayern München score 3.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Union Berlin score 2.00 and concede 3.20. In the table, Bayern München sit 4th with 7 points from 3 games, Union Berlin 16th with 1 points from 3. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bayern München have averaged 2.94 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.11 for Union Berlin.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bayern München, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin (Mar 21, 2026). Bayern München out or doubtful: T. Buchmann. Union Berlin: O. Burke, M. Friedrich, A. Ilic, J. Juranovic and A. Markgraf. In double chance terms, "Bayern München or draw" stands at 98%, "Union Berlin or draw" at 7% and "no draw" at 95%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

93%
Bayern München (Win)
5%
Draw
2%
Union Berlin (Win)

Double chance

98%
Bayern München or draw
7%
Union Berlin or draw
95%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bayern München – Union Berlin. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bayern München 3-0 Union Berlin11.6%
Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin11.6%
Bayern München 5-0 Union Berlin9.3%
Bayern München 2-0 Union Berlin8.7%
Bayern München 6-0 Union Berlin6.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 4.00 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.52 for Union Berlin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Goals look likely in this one. Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 59% of scenarios, Union Berlin in 2%.

Probability
Bayern München expected goals4.00
Union Berlin expected goals0.52
Both teams to score40%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals66%
Bayern München clean sheet59%
Union Berlin clean sheet2%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Bayern München

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026SV Elversberg · Bundesliga2-1W
Sep 10, 2026Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League5-0W
Sep 5, 2026FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga0-0D
Sep 2, 2026VfL Osnabrück · DFB-Pokal4-1W
Aug 28, 2026VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga5-1W

Union Berlin

DateOpponentScore
Sep 11, 2026FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga1-3L
Sep 5, 2026Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga0-4L
Aug 29, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga3-3D
Aug 23, 2026Eintracht Braunschweig · DFB-Pokal4-2W
Aug 15, 2026Ipswich · Club Friendlies2-4L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bayern München473
Union Berlin1613

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 21, 2026Bayern München 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Dec 3, 2025Union Berlin 2-3 Bayern MünchenDFB-Pokal
Nov 8, 2025Union Berlin 2-2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

Out and doubtful

Bayern München

  • T. Buchmann (out)

Union Berlin

  • O. Burke (out)
  • M. Friedrich (out)
  • A. Ilic (out)
  • J. Juranovic (out)
  • A. Markgraf (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bayern München vs Union Berlin prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bayern München a 93% chance of winning, the draw 5% and Union Berlin 2%. Bayern München are therefore favourites. Final score: 7-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

3-0 (11.6%), followed by 4-0 (11.6%), 5-0 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.7%) and 6-0 (6.2%).

Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

The probability that both Bayern München and Union Berlin score is 40%. Bayern München have a 59% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Union Berlin 2%.

How many goals should we expect in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

The model expects 4.52 goals (4.00 for Bayern München, 0.52 for Union Berlin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.

When and where is Bayern München vs Union Berlin played?

Friday, September 18, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 4. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich.

What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in?

Bayern München: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 3 conceded). Union Berlin: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 16 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bayern München, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin (Mar 21, 2026).

What was the Bayern München vs Union Berlin result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayern München at 93%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.

How is the Bayern München vs Union Berlin prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Bayern München, 0.52 for Union Berlin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained