Skip to content
Elofoot

BundesligaBundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: 4-0 result and AI prediction review

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen4 – 0Union BerlinUnion Berlin

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayer Leverkusen at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.

Match analysis

Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen. Before kick-off, our model gave Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 39%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (8.4%), followed by 2-1 (7.8%) and 1-2 (7.8%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Union Berlin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bayer Leverkusen score 2.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Union Berlin score 2.80 and concede 2.60. In the table, Bayer Leverkusen sit 13th with 0 points from 1 games, Union Berlin 9th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 1.88 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.84 for Union Berlin.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen, 1 for Union Berlin and 0 draws. The most recent ended Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Feb 21, 2026). Bayer Leverkusen out or doubtful: E. Ben Seghir, M. Culbreath, K. Eichhorn and M. Terrier. Union Berlin: O. Burke, M. Friedrich, A. Ilic, A. Markgraf and S. Nsoki. In double chance terms, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" stands at 61%, "Union Berlin or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 78%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

39%
Bayer Leverkusen (Win)
22%
Draw
39%
Union Berlin (Win)

Double chance

61%
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
61%
Union Berlin or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bayer Leverkusen – Union Berlin. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Union Berlin8.4%
Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Union Berlin7.8%
Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Union Berlin7.8%
Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Union Berlin7.3%
Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Union Berlin4.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.87 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.85 for Union Berlin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 72% and "both teams to score" at 71%. Goals look likely in this one. Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Union Berlin in 15%.

Probability
Bayer Leverkusen expected goals1.87
Union Berlin expected goals1.85
Both teams to score71%
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet16%
Union Berlin clean sheet15%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Bayer Leverkusen

DateOpponentScore
Aug 29, 2026SV Elversberg · Bundesliga2-3L
Aug 22, 2026SV Wehen · DFB-Pokal4-0W
Aug 15, 2026Newcastle · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 12, 2026Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies1-2L
Aug 8, 2026Sevilla · Club Friendlies2-1W

Union Berlin

DateOpponentScore
Aug 29, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga3-3D
Aug 23, 2026Eintracht Braunschweig · DFB-Pokal4-2W
Aug 15, 2026Ipswich · Club Friendlies2-4L
Aug 9, 2026Aris · Club Friendlies3-2W
Aug 2, 2026Cagliari · Club Friendlies2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bayer Leverkusen1301
Union Berlin911

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 21, 2026Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Oct 4, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Union BerlinBundesliga

Out and doubtful

Bayer Leverkusen

  • E. Ben Seghir (out)
  • M. Culbreath (out)
  • K. Eichhorn (out)
  • M. Terrier (out)

Union Berlin

  • O. Burke (out)
  • M. Friedrich (out)
  • A. Ilic (out)
  • A. Markgraf (out)
  • S. Nsoki (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 39%. Bayer Leverkusen are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

1-1 (8.4%), followed by 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%) and 3-1 (4.9%).

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

The probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin score is 71%. Bayer Leverkusen have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Union Berlin 15%.

How many goals should we expect in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

The model expects 3.72 goals (1.87 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.85 for Union Berlin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.

When and where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin played?

Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 2. Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen.

What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in?

Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded). Union Berlin: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 13 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen, 1 for Union Berlin and 0 draws. The most recent ended Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Feb 21, 2026).

What was the Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayer Leverkusen at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.

How is the Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.87 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.85 for Union Berlin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained