Bundesliga· Kick-off : Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (89%), while victory for VfB Stuttgart was rated at only 3%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.
Match analysis
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln met on Friday, September 4, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart. Before kick-off, our model gave VfB Stuttgart a 3% chance of winning, the draw 8% and 1. FC Köln 89%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (13.7%), followed by 0-2 (12.7%) and 0-4 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. 1. FC Köln are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 and conceding 6. 1. FC Köln therefore arrive in far better shape than VfB Stuttgart. On average VfB Stuttgart score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; 1. FC Köln score 3.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, VfB Stuttgart sit 18th with 0 points from 1 games, 1. FC Köln 6th with 3 points from 1. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, VfB Stuttgart have averaged 0.79 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.95 for 1. FC Köln.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws. The most recent ended VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln (Feb 14, 2026). VfB Stuttgart out or doubtful: J. Arevalo, L. Assignon, J. Diehl, C. Fuhrich and L. Jaquez. 1. FC Köln: T. Hubers, S. Sebulonsen and L. Waldschmidt. In double chance terms, "VfB Stuttgart or draw" stands at 11%, "1. FC Köln or draw" at 97% and "no draw" at 92%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as VfB Stuttgart – 1. FC Köln. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 0-3 1. FC Köln | 13.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart 0-2 1. FC Köln | 12.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart 0-4 1. FC Köln | 11.1% |
| VfB Stuttgart 0-1 1. FC Köln | 7.9% |
| VfB Stuttgart 0-5 1. FC Köln | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.48 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 3.24 for 1. FC Köln, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 72% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Goals look likely in this one. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 4% of scenarios, 1. FC Köln in 62%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart expected goals | 0.48 |
| 1. FC Köln expected goals | 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 4% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 62% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
VfB Stuttgart
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 1-5 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hansa Rostock · DFB-Pokal | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fulham · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Everton · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Paris FC · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Würzburger Kickers · DFB-Pokal | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hertha BSC · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Bergisch Gladbach · Club Friendlies | 8-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| 1. FC Köln | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | 1. FC Köln 1-2 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
VfB Stuttgart
- J. Arevalo (out)
- L. Assignon (out)
- J. Diehl (out)
- C. Fuhrich (out)
- L. Jaquez (out)
1. FC Köln
- T. Hubers (out)
- S. Sebulonsen (out)
- L. Waldschmidt (out)
Other matches in this competition
- SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgSep 5, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigSep 5, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinSep 5, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 SV ElversbergSep 5, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundSep 5, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MünchenSep 5, 2026
- Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Sep 6, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC AugsburgSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave VfB Stuttgart a 3% chance of winning, the draw 8% and 1. FC Köln 89%. 1. FC Köln are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
0-3 (13.7%), followed by 0-2 (12.7%), 0-4 (11.1%), 0-1 (7.9%) and 0-5 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
The probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln score is 37%. VfB Stuttgart have a 4% chance of keeping a clean sheet, 1. FC Köln 62%.
How many goals should we expect in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
The model expects 3.72 goals (0.48 for VfB Stuttgart, 3.24 for 1. FC Köln). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.
When and where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln played?
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 2. Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in?
VfB Stuttgart: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). 1. FC Köln: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws. The most recent ended VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln (Feb 14, 2026).
What was the VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (89%), while victory for VfB Stuttgart was rated at only 3%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.
How is the VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.48 for VfB Stuttgart, 3.24 for 1. FC Köln) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All VfB Stuttgart predictions
- All 1. FC Köln predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- VfB Stuttgart cards
- 1. FC Köln cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology