Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for RB Leipzig (95%), while victory for Werder Bremen was rated at only 1%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
Match analysis
Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen. Before kick-off, our model gave Werder Bremen a 1% chance of winning, the draw 4% and RB Leipzig 95%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (13.9%), followed by 0-4 (13.9%) and 0-5 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Werder Bremen have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Werder Bremen score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; RB Leipzig score 2.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Werder Bremen sit 15th with 0 points from 1 games, RB Leipzig 3rd with 3 points from 1. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Werder Bremen have averaged 0.54 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.96 for RB Leipzig.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. The most recent ended Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig (Apr 4, 2026). Werder Bremen out or doubtful: F. Agu, K. Topp, M. Weiser and O. Wojcik. RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner, O. Nyland, A. Ouedraogo and Romulo Cardoso. In double chance terms, "Werder Bremen or draw" stands at 5%, "RB Leipzig or draw" at 99% and "no draw" at 96%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (13.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen 0-3 RB Leipzig | 13.9% |
| Werder Bremen 0-4 RB Leipzig | 13.9% |
| Werder Bremen 0-5 RB Leipzig | 11.1% |
| Werder Bremen 0-2 RB Leipzig | 10.4% |
| Werder Bremen 0-6 RB Leipzig | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.34 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 4.00 for RB Leipzig, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 81% and "both teams to score" at 28%. Goals look likely in this one. Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, RB Leipzig in 71%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen expected goals | 0.34 |
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 28% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 2% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 71% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Werder Bremen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lüneburger SK Hansa · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Auxerre · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Energie Cottbus · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eintracht Trier · DFB-Pokal | 6-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayern München · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leeds · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Verl · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Nov 23, 2025 | RB Leipzig 2-0 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Werder Bremen
- F. Agu (out)
- K. Topp (out)
- M. Weiser (out)
- O. Wojcik (out)
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- O. Nyland (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- Romulo Cardoso (out)
Other matches in this competition
- VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnSep 4, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgSep 5, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinSep 5, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 SV ElversbergSep 5, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundSep 5, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MünchenSep 5, 2026
- Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Sep 6, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC AugsburgSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Werder Bremen a 1% chance of winning, the draw 4% and RB Leipzig 95%. RB Leipzig are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
0-3 (13.9%), followed by 0-4 (13.9%), 0-5 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.4%) and 0-6 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
The probability that both Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig score is 28%. Werder Bremen have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, RB Leipzig 71%.
How many goals should we expect in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 4.34 goals (0.34 for Werder Bremen, 4.00 for RB Leipzig). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 2. Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen.
What form are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig in?
Werder Bremen: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). RB Leipzig: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. The most recent ended Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig (Apr 4, 2026).
What was the Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for RB Leipzig (95%), while victory for Werder Bremen was rated at only 1%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
How is the Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.34 for Werder Bremen, 4.00 for RB Leipzig) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Werder Bremen predictions
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Werder Bremen cards
- RB Leipzig cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology