Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for SC Freiburg was the model's favourite outcome (90%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): missed.
Match analysis
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg was played on Saturday, September 5, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 2). Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. Before kick-off, our model gave SC Paderborn 07 a 3% chance of winning, the draw 7% and SC Freiburg 90%. The most likely correct score is 0-3 (13.2%), ahead of 0-2 (11.7%) and 0-4 (11.1%).
SC Paderborn 07 are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 5. SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 19 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with SC Freiburg. On average SC Paderborn 07 score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; SC Freiburg score 3.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, SC Paderborn 07 sit 11th with 1 points from 1 games, SC Freiburg 2nd with 3 points from 1. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 have averaged 0.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.37 for SC Freiburg.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. SC Paderborn 07 out or doubtful: N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel, T. Gayret and S. Michel. SC Freiburg: F. Muslija, P. Osterhage and R. Yamamoto. In double chance terms, "SC Paderborn 07 or draw" stands at 10%, "SC Freiburg or draw" at 97% and "no draw" at 93%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as SC Paderborn 07 – SC Freiburg. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 0-3 SC Freiburg | 13.2% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0-2 SC Freiburg | 11.7% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0-4 SC Freiburg | 11.1% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0-5 SC Freiburg | 7.5% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.89 goals in total (0.51 for SC Paderborn 07, 3.38 for SC Freiburg): over 2.5 goals has a 75% probability and both teams to score 39%. Everything points to an open game. SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, SC Freiburg in 60%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 expected goals | 0.51 |
| SC Freiburg expected goals | 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 3% |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 60% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
SC Paderborn 07
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phönix Lübeck · DFB-Pokal | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfL Osnabrück · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Motherwell · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf · DFB-Pokal | 5-1 | W |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| SC Freiburg | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
SC Paderborn 07
- N. Awortwie-Grant (out)
- L. Eickel (out)
- T. Gayret (out)
- S. Michel (out)
SC Freiburg
- F. Muslija (out)
- P. Osterhage (out)
- R. Yamamoto (out)
Other matches in this competition
- VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnSep 4, 2026
- Werder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigSep 5, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinSep 5, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 SV ElversbergSep 5, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundSep 5, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MünchenSep 5, 2026
- Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Sep 6, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC AugsburgSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave SC Paderborn 07 a 3% chance of winning, the draw 7% and SC Freiburg 90%. SC Freiburg are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
0-3 (13.2%), followed by 0-2 (11.7%), 0-4 (11.1%), 0-5 (7.5%) and 0-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
The probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg score is 39%. SC Paderborn 07 have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SC Freiburg 60%.
How many goals should we expect in SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
The model expects 3.89 goals (0.51 for SC Paderborn 07, 3.38 for SC Freiburg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 55%.
When and where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 2. Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg in?
SC Paderborn 07: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). SC Freiburg: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (19 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws.
What was the SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for SC Freiburg was the model's favourite outcome (90%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): missed.
How is the SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.51 for SC Paderborn 07, 3.38 for SC Freiburg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All SC Paderborn 07 predictions
- All SC Freiburg predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- SC Freiburg cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology