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BundesligaBundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05: 0-5 result and AI prediction review

Hamburger SVHamburger SV0 – 5FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FSV Mainz 05 was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (35%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.

Match analysis

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 was played on Sunday, September 6, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 2). Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg. Before kick-off, our model gave Hamburger SV a 18% chance of winning, the draw 29% and FSV Mainz 05 53%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (18.5%), ahead of 0-0 (14.1%) and 0-2 (12.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. FSV Mainz 05 are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 18 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with FSV Mainz 05. On average Hamburger SV score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Hamburger SV sit 14th with 0 points from 1 games, FSV Mainz 05 10th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Hamburger SV have averaged 0.69 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.24 for FSV Mainz 05.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Hamburger SV, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV (Feb 20, 2026). Hamburger SV out or doubtful: M. Muheim, W. Omari and A. Rossing-Lelesiit. FSV Mainz 05: B. Hollerbach, E. Martel, P. Nebel and Silas. In double chance terms, "Hamburger SV or draw" stands at 47%, "FSV Mainz 05 or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 71%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

18%
Hamburger SV (Win)
29%
Draw
53%
FSV Mainz 05 (Win)

Double chance

47%
Hamburger SV or draw
82%
FSV Mainz 05 or draw
71%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Hamburger SV – FSV Mainz 05. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (18.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 66% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Hamburger SV 0-1 FSV Mainz 0518.5%
Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 0514.1%
Hamburger SV 0-2 FSV Mainz 0512.1%
Hamburger SV 1-1 FSV Mainz 0512.0%
Hamburger SV 1-0 FSV Mainz 059.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.96 goals in total (0.65 for Hamburger SV, 1.31 for FSV Mainz 05): over 2.5 goals has a 31% probability and both teams to score 35%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, FSV Mainz 05 in 52%.

Probability
Hamburger SV expected goals0.65
FSV Mainz 05 expected goals1.31
Both teams to score35%
Over 1.5 goals58%
Over 2.5 goals31%
Over 3.5 goals14%
Hamburger SV clean sheet27%
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet52%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Hamburger SV

DateOpponentScore
Aug 29, 2026Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0-2L
Aug 24, 2026Verl · DFB-Pokal3-0W
Aug 15, 2026Toulouse · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 8, 2026Lille · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 1, 2026Everton · Club Friendlies1-2L

FSV Mainz 05

DateOpponentScore
Aug 29, 2026SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga0-0D
Aug 23, 2026Krieschow · DFB-Pokal9-0W
Aug 15, 2026Bournemouth · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 8, 2026Paris FC · Club Friendlies4-0W
Aug 1, 2026Udinese · Club Friendlies3-3D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Hamburger SV1401
FSV Mainz 051011

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 20, 2026FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Oct 5, 2025Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Out and doubtful

Hamburger SV

  • M. Muheim (out)
  • W. Omari (out)
  • A. Rossing-Lelesiit (out)

FSV Mainz 05

  • B. Hollerbach (out)
  • E. Martel (out)
  • P. Nebel (out)
  • Silas (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Hamburger SV a 18% chance of winning, the draw 29% and FSV Mainz 05 53%. FSV Mainz 05 are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-5.

What is the most likely correct score for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

0-1 (18.5%), followed by 0-0 (14.1%), 0-2 (12.1%), 1-1 (12.0%) and 1-0 (9.2%).

Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

The probability that both Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 score is 35%. Hamburger SV have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FSV Mainz 05 52%.

How many goals should we expect in Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

The model expects 1.96 goals (0.65 for Hamburger SV, 1.31 for FSV Mainz 05). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 14%.

When and where is Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 2. Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.

What form are Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 in?

Hamburger SV: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). FSV Mainz 05: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Hamburger SV, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV (Feb 20, 2026).

What was the Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FSV Mainz 05 was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (35%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.

How is the Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.65 for Hamburger SV, 1.31 for FSV Mainz 05) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained