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BundesligaBundesliga· Kick-off : Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart: 5-1 result and AI prediction review

Bayern MünchenBayern München5 – 1VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Bayern München was the model's favourite outcome (79%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

Match analysis

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart was played on Friday, August 28, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 1). Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Before kick-off, our model gave Bayern München a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and VfB Stuttgart 8%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).

Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Bayern München. On average Bayern München score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; VfB Stuttgart score 3.40 and concede 1.00.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Bayern München, 0 for VfB Stuttgart and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayern München 3-0 VfB Stuttgart (May 23, 2026). Bayern München out or doubtful: T. Buchmann, S. Gnabry, J. Musiala and B. Zaragoza. VfB Stuttgart: J. Arevalo, L. Assignon, J. Diehl, L. Jaquez and N. Nartey. In double chance terms, "Bayern München or draw" stands at 92%, "VfB Stuttgart or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 87%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

79%
Bayern München (Win)
13%
Draw
8%
VfB Stuttgart (Win)

Double chance

92%
Bayern München or draw
21%
VfB Stuttgart or draw
87%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bayern München – VfB Stuttgart. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bayern München 1-0 VfB Stuttgart11.7%
Bayern München 1-1 VfB Stuttgart11.4%
Bayern München 2-0 VfB Stuttgart9.9%
Bayern München 2-1 VfB Stuttgart9.7%
Bayern München 0-0 VfB Stuttgart6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.70 for Bayern München, 0.98 for VfB Stuttgart): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, VfB Stuttgart in 18%.

Probability
Bayern München expected goals1.70
VfB Stuttgart expected goals0.98
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Bayern München clean sheet38%
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Bayern München

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Borussia Dortmund · German Super Cup2-1W
Aug 18, 20261. FC Heidenheim · Club Friendlies4-2W
Aug 15, 2026RB Leipzig · Club Friendlies3-1W
Aug 7, 2026Aston Villa · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 4, 2026Jeju United FC · Club Friendlies2-1W

VfB Stuttgart

DateOpponentScore
Aug 21, 2026Hansa Rostock · DFB-Pokal4-0W
Aug 15, 2026Fulham · Club Friendlies0-1L
Aug 8, 2026Everton · Club Friendlies3-1W
Aug 1, 2026Paris FC · Club Friendlies2-2D
Jul 29, 2026Kickers Offenbach · Club Friendlies8-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bayern München100
VfB Stuttgart400

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 23, 2026Bayern München 3-0 VfB StuttgartDFB-Pokal
Apr 19, 2026Bayern München 4-2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Dec 6, 2025VfB Stuttgart 0-5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Aug 16, 2025VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Bayern MünchenGerman Super Cup

Out and doubtful

Bayern München

  • T. Buchmann (out)
  • S. Gnabry (out)
  • J. Musiala (out)
  • B. Zaragoza (out)

VfB Stuttgart

  • J. Arevalo (out)
  • L. Assignon (out)
  • J. Diehl (out)
  • L. Jaquez (out)
  • N. Nartey (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bayern München a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and VfB Stuttgart 8%. Bayern München are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?

The probability that both Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart score is 51%. Bayern München have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, VfB Stuttgart 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?

The model expects 2.68 goals (1.70 for Bayern München, 0.98 for VfB Stuttgart). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart played?

Friday, August 28, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 1. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich.

What form are Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart in?

Bayern München: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). VfB Stuttgart: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Bayern München, 0 for VfB Stuttgart and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bayern München 3-0 VfB Stuttgart (May 23, 2026).

What was the Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Bayern München was the model's favourite outcome (79%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

How is the Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.70 for Bayern München, 0.98 for VfB Stuttgart) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained