Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for SC Freiburg was the model's favourite outcome (50%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen was played on Sunday, August 30, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 1). Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg. Before kick-off, our model gave SC Freiburg a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Werder Bremen 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).
SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 17 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Werder Bremen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with SC Freiburg. On average SC Freiburg score 3.40 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Werder Bremen score 2.20 and concede 1.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for Werder Bremen and 0 draws. The most recent ended SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen (Feb 7, 2026). SC Freiburg out or doubtful: F. Muslija, P. Osterhage and R. Yamamoto. Werder Bremen: F. Agu, K. Topp, M. Weiser and O. Wojcik. In double chance terms, "SC Freiburg or draw" stands at 76%, "Werder Bremen or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as SC Freiburg – Werder Bremen. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen | 11.7% |
| SC Freiburg 1-1 Werder Bremen | 11.4% |
| SC Freiburg 2-0 Werder Bremen | 9.9% |
| SC Freiburg 2-1 Werder Bremen | 9.7% |
| SC Freiburg 0-0 Werder Bremen | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.70 for SC Freiburg, 0.98 for Werder Bremen): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Werder Bremen in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg expected goals | 1.70 |
| Werder Bremen expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 38% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | Motherwell · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf · DFB-Pokal | 5-1 | W |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strasbourg · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Werder Bremen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lüneburger SK Hansa · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Auxerre · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Energie Cottbus · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | VfL Bochum · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Werder Bremen | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Werder Bremen 0-3 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
SC Freiburg
- F. Muslija (out)
- P. Osterhage (out)
- R. Yamamoto (out)
Werder Bremen
- F. Agu (out)
- K. Topp (out)
- M. Weiser (out)
- O. Wojcik (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 5-1 VfB StuttgartAug 28, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 3-2 1899 HoffenheimAug 29, 2026
- SV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenAug 29, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Aug 29, 2026
- RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia MönchengladbachAug 29, 2026
- Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtAug 29, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVAug 29, 2026
- FC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04Aug 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave SC Freiburg a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Werder Bremen 24%. SC Freiburg are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
The probability that both SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen score is 51%. SC Freiburg have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Werder Bremen 18%.
How many goals should we expect in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.70 for SC Freiburg, 0.98 for Werder Bremen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen played?
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 1. Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg.
What form are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in?
SC Freiburg: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 3 conceded). Werder Bremen: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for Werder Bremen and 0 draws. The most recent ended SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen (Feb 7, 2026).
What was the SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for SC Freiburg was the model's favourite outcome (50%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.70 for SC Freiburg, 0.98 for Werder Bremen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All SC Freiburg predictions
- All Werder Bremen predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- SC Freiburg cards
- Werder Bremen cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology