Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Borussia Dortmund at 49%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV met on Saturday, August 29, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Before kick-off, our model gave Borussia Dortmund a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Hamburger SV 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Borussia Dortmund have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Hamburger SV therefore arrive in far better shape than Borussia Dortmund. On average Borussia Dortmund score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Hamburger SV score 2.20 and concede 1.20.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Hamburger SV and 1 draw. The most recent ended Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV (Mar 21, 2026). Borussia Dortmund out or doubtful: E. Can, M. Kaba, N. Schlotterbeck and R. Bensebaini. Hamburger SV: M. Muheim, W. Omari and A. Rossing-Lelesiit. In double chance terms, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" stands at 74%, "Hamburger SV or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Borussia Dortmund – Hamburger SV. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Hamburger SV | 12.0% |
| Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Hamburger SV | 11.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Hamburger SV | 9.4% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV | 8.9% |
| Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Hamburger SV | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.58 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.06 for Hamburger SV, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Hamburger SV in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 1.58 |
| Hamburger SV expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 35% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bayern München · German Super Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AS Roma · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tokyo · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Hamburger SV
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Verl · DFB-Pokal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Toulouse · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lille · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Everton · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | 1. FC Heidenheim · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hamburger SV | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Can (out)
- M. Kaba (out)
- N. Schlotterbeck (out)
- R. Bensebaini (out)
Hamburger SV
- M. Muheim (out)
- W. Omari (out)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Bayern München 5-1 VfB StuttgartAug 28, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 3-2 1899 HoffenheimAug 29, 2026
- SV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenAug 29, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Aug 29, 2026
- RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia MönchengladbachAug 29, 2026
- Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtAug 29, 2026
- SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenAug 30, 2026
- FC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04Aug 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Borussia Dortmund a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Hamburger SV 26%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
The probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV score is 52%. Borussia Dortmund have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hamburger SV 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.58 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.06 for Hamburger SV). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV played?
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 1. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV in?
Borussia Dortmund: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Hamburger SV: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Hamburger SV and 1 draw. The most recent ended Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV (Mar 21, 2026).
What was the Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Borussia Dortmund at 49%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.06 for Hamburger SV) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- All Hamburger SV predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Borussia Dortmund cards
- Hamburger SV cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology