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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 19:15 (UK time)

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

CeljeCelje2 – 0Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Celje 2-0 Ararat-Armenia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Celje at 48%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Celje and Ararat-Armenia met on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Arena Z’dezele, Celje. Before kick-off, our model gave Celje a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ararat-Armenia 27%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Celje have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 10 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Ararat-Armenia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Ararat-Armenia therefore arrive in far better shape than Celje. On average Celje score 2.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Ararat-Armenia score 1.80 and concede 1.20.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Celje, 1 for Ararat-Armenia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (Aug 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Celje or draw" stands at 73%, "Ararat-Armenia or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

48%
Celje (Win)
25%
Draw
27%
Ararat-Armenia (Win)

Double chance

73%
Celje or draw
52%
Ararat-Armenia or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Celje – Ararat-Armenia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Celje 1-1 Ararat-Armenia12.1%
Celje 1-0 Ararat-Armenia11.1%
Celje 2-1 Ararat-Armenia9.3%
Celje 2-0 Ararat-Armenia8.5%
Celje 0-1 Ararat-Armenia7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.53 expected goals for Celje and 1.09 for Ararat-Armenia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Celje keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Ararat-Armenia in 22%.

Probability
Celje expected goals1.53
Ararat-Armenia expected goals1.09
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Celje clean sheet34%
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Celje

DateOpponentScore
Aug 4, 2026Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Jul 28, 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Jul 22, 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë · UEFA Champions League3-3D
Jul 8, 2026MTK Budapest · Club Friendlies4-3W
Jul 4, 2026Cukaricki · Club Friendlies1-1D

Ararat-Armenia

DateOpponentScore
Aug 4, 2026Celje · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Jul 28, 2026Shamrock Rovers · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Jul 21, 2026Shamrock Rovers · UEFA Champions League2-0W
Jul 14, 2026Riga · UEFA Champions League2-3L
Jul 7, 2026Riga · UEFA Champions League2-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 4, 2026Ararat-Armenia 2-1 CeljeUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Celje

No absences reported.

Ararat-Armenia

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Celje vs Ararat-Armenia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Celje a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ararat-Armenia 27%. Celje are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Celje vs Ararat-Armenia?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.5%) and 0-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Celje vs Ararat-Armenia?

The probability that both Celje and Ararat-Armenia score is 52%. Celje have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ararat-Armenia 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Celje vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.53 for Celje, 1.09 for Ararat-Armenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Celje vs Ararat-Armenia played?

Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 19:15 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Arena Z’dezele, Celje.

What form are Celje and Ararat-Armenia in?

Celje: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded). Ararat-Armenia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Celje and Ararat-Armenia?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Celje, 1 for Ararat-Armenia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (Aug 4, 2026).

What was the Celje vs Ararat-Armenia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Celje 2-0 Ararat-Armenia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Celje at 48%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Celje vs Ararat-Armenia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Celje, 1.09 for Ararat-Armenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained